Matt Eberflus
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

Bears Game Day: Three-Six-Nine The Goose Drank Wine

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 8, 2024

“Three-six-nine, the goose drank wine. The monkey chewed tobacco on the streetcar line. The line broke, the monkey got choked, and they all went to Heaven in a little rowboat.” – T-Bird & The Breaks, The Clap Hands Song.

I drank the Kool-Aid last year, and I’m going to the same well when the Bears host the Titans today. I even referenced the Rolling Stones a year ago, who played at Soldier Field earlier this summer, when predicting Chicago would beat Green Bay 31-16. You can scroll to the bottom of this column to see how I feel about today’s tilt with Tennessee. I made that prediction before looking at last year’s column, and as you’ll see, I’m a creature of habit and wishful thinking.

I was at last year’s game and did an immediate 180 on the Bears’ chances in 2023 when I left the stadium. That’s also when I started thinking that perhaps Justin Fields wouldn’t be the talent I’d hoped he’d be. Fields is gone, and Caleb Williams is Chicago’s resident gunslinger and franchise quarterback, but, Williams aside, it is the team’s defense I am most excited about this season.

Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus have built a unit that’s fast and aggressive with a penchant for creating turnovers. Those are trademarks of Coach E’s HITS philosophy (Hustle, Intensity, Takeaways, Smart), and Chicago is one good defensive tackle short of being a dominant unit. The Bears are counting on a breakout season from Gervon Dexter, though the line still lacks depth. Chris Williams might be an underrated pickup, but with Zacch Pickens out, he’s Chicago’s only backup. Rookie Austin Booker will be part of the rotation at Edge and could supplant incumbent starter DeMarcus Walker before the season ends.

Still, all eyes will be on Williams, and I’m sure that’s fine with Eberflus and his staff. Keep an eye on the defense though. The unit finished in the top five last season and hopes to build on that momentum thanks to a full season of Montez Sweat, the addition of Darrell Taylor, and the promise of Dexter. Chicago’s linebacking corps and defensive backfield are nearly elite, and Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon – Poles’ first two draft picks – enter the season with high expectations and a chance to be special.

The Bears are favored by four and a hook today with the over/under line is 44.5, Chicago is -195 on the money line (bet $195 to win $100).

Field Conditions

It will be sunny with temperatures in the upper 60s at game time, and Soldier Field will be in its best condition of the season. Expect a fast field that will favor the Bears, who have more playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Titans.

Bears Trends

  • The Bears were 5-2 against the spread in their final seven games last year.
  • Bears games have gone over in eight of the last 10 times they’ve faced an AFC opponent.
  • Chicago (4-0) and Tennessee (3-0) were among seven teams that had perfect records in the preseason.
  • In NFL history, No. 1 picks have gone 4-15-1 (4-15-1 ATS) in Week 1 starts.
  • The Bears led the NFL in run defense in 2023, giving up just 86.5 yards per game.
  • Believe it or not, the Bears will be trying to extend a five-game winning streak at Soldier Field.
  • Williams is attempting to be the first No. 1 overall draft choice (as a quarterback) to start and win his inaugural game. David Carr was the last signal caller to do that back in 2002.
  • Chicago blew three double-digit fourth-quarter leads in 2023.
  • Eberflus is 10-24 in two seasons as the Bears’ head coach.
  • The Bears were 7-10 in 2023 but won five of their final eight contests.

Titans Trends

  • The Titans were 2-5 ATS as road dogs in 2023.
  • The Titans are 31-23-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season.
  • Will Levis threw for four TDs with no interceptions last year in his Week 8 debut against the Falcons. He only threw for four scores with four INTs in his final eight starts.
  • 10 rookie quarterbacks started games last year, including Levis. They were a cumulative 29-44 with a 33-36-4 ATS mark. Levis was 3-7 head-to-head and against the spread.
  • Brian Callahan is making his first appearance as a head coach. Over the past six years, rookie sideline bosses are 8-19-1 (12-16 ATS) in Week 1. But from 2015-17, first-year coaches went 9-1-1 (9-2 ATS).
  • Tennessee was 6-11 last season.

Why the Bears Will Win

This is a statement game for Eberflus and Williams. The Bears became a competitive team once Eberflus assumed defensive play-calling last season. Williams is Chicago’s newest franchise quarterback following the failures of Fields and Mitchell Trubisky. The Titans are an enticing choice to kickstart the Williams era of Bears football.

Of course, there is a silver lining for the former USC star in that he will be provided with several weapons. The Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to their receivers room, and D’Andre Swift is the team’s new RB1. Cole Kmet and D.J. Moore return to an offense that scored 27 points or more in their final three wins of 2023.

Chicago’s defense is set up to dominate. Look for the Bears to force at least three interceptions today and force another two fumbles. If Chicago jumps to an early lead the game will be a rout. I don’t expect the Bears to give up any double-digit leads this season.

Why the Titans Will Win

Levis is expected to have a breakout campaign and could make things uncomfortable for Bears fans with a big game. Levis was 3-6 as a starter in 2023, but just 1-4 on the road. Tennessee’s retooled roster includes at least 13 new starters, including free agent additions Calvin Ridley and L’Jarius Sneed along with draft selections JC Latham and T’Vondre Sweat. The Titans’ defense will lean on veteran stars Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons as holdovers from the Mike Vrabel era.

Rookie quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall are 0-14-1 in their inaugural starts since 2002. If the Titans can contain Chicago’s high-powered offense, they’ll win the game.

Did You Know?

The Titans are 7-6 all-time against the Bears, but 3-3 since the franchise moved from Houston to Tennessee. This will be the first tilt between the two teams since 2020 and the first in front of a true, full crowd since 2016. The Titans won in Nashville before a listed crowd of 13,871 during the 2020 COVID season at Nissan Stadium. The last time Chicago beat Tennessee was in 2012 when the Bears throttled the Titans 51-20. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall hooked up for three scores in that game, and Charles Tillman forced four fumbles.

Game Day Quote

  • “We all know what [Williams] can do in terms of his arm talent in terms of throwing on the move and those types of things. But in the early parts of the game and early downs, he’s just asked to play point guard, have a great operation, and get the ball to our skill, either by handing it off or throwing it to them and letting them do the running and moving around and gaining the yards.” – Eberflus

Injury Reports

Players of the Game

Williams should have a solid debut, but I’m looking for big games by Swift, Allen, Moore and Kmet on offense. Look for Williams and Kmet to connect on two scoring passes. On defense, Brisker is ready to break out. He and Jaylon Johnson will make things difficult for Levis all game. Sweat will continue to be a game-changer.

Prediction

Our own Sean Holland analyzed today’s game and predicted a 20-13  win by the home team. I’m calling this a statement game for Williams and Eberflus, and for a team that smells blood in the water due to the Jordan Love injury. Give me the Bears in a big home opener win over the Titans. The final score will be 31-16.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 8, 2024
Bears Insider © Copyright 2024, All Rights Reserved
Back to top button