Cole Kmet
(AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Bears Game Day: Don’t You Forget About Me

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 22, 2024

Cole Kmet has been the forgotten man in Chicago’s offense, and that needs to change if the Bears hope to beat the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday afternoon. Kmet, who had a career year in 2023, has been targeted only six times in two games. His five catches for 31 yards have him on pace for the least productive season of his career, but he’ll get more opportunities as Caleb Williams adjusts to life as an NFL quarterback. Williams hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass to anybody this season, but that’s going to change, too. It’s safe to say that both players need to step up this afternoon to keep the Bears from losing their second consecutive game.

Offensive coordinator Shan Waldron blamed himself for Kmet’s lack of involvement.

“We know Cole is one of the top tight ends in the league,” Waldron said heading into the team’s Week 2 matchup against Houston. “He does a great job for us. He has done nothing but the right thing ever since I’ve been around him. So, that’s more on us, starting with me, getting the reps a little bit more balance. But it also goes back to playing efficient football.”

Waldron has been protecting Williams to the point that Chicago’s offense has become a little too predictable. The rookie quarterback rarely throws downfield, so it’s a bit of a surprise that Kmet hasn’t had more targets. That said, Kmet has been the blocking end when he and Gerald Everett are on the field at the same time. It’s time, therefore, for Waldron to put his money where his mouth is.

Williams didn’t handle the blitz well in last week’s 19-13 loss to the Texans, and he was 3-of-12 for 15 yards with an interception when Houston blitzed. Williams also took five of his seven sacks against schemed pressure. In theory, Kmet should always be open in those situations because the tight end is left uncovered. On Sunday night, Kmet averaged 4.2 yards of separation per target according to Next Generation Stats. The Bears are missing a fantastic opportunity to be better vertically whether it’s Williams’s fault or Waldron’s.

The Colts run Cover 3 more than any other team in the NFL, as defensive coordinator Gus Bradley schemes his players up in that formation on 67% of his opponents’ dropbacks. That type of coverage is at its most vulnerable to quick, underneath passes because it leaves four defensive players to man five zones. The best way Chicago can beat Bradley and the Colts is by sending their wide receivers on deep routes while opening up the middle for Kmet and running back D’Andre Swift. If Swift struggles, perhaps Waldron will turn to Roschon Johnson, who’s an excellent pass-catching back.

If Waldron is feeling a little saucy, he could run four verticals or utilize the tight end as a deep crosser. That might be tough given Chicago’s porous offensive line and a wide receiver group that will be missing Keenan Allen. At some point, the Bears need to take the training wheels off and let Williams figure out how to ride like a big boy. Today’s tilt with Indianapolis offers opportunities to do just that,

Oddsmakers consider this game essentially a pick ‘em, meaning there are plenty of variables that will determine its outcome. The over/under is 43.5, the Bears are +100 on the money line (bet $100 to win $100) while the Colts are -$120. Indianapolis is therefore a slight favorite.

Field Conditions

Welcome to Fall (as of 8:44 this morning), and it feels awfully Autumn-like in the Midwest today. The Bears are playing in a domed stadium for the second consecutive week so the weather will not be a factor.

Bears Trends

  • Chicago has covered the spread once in two games with a set spread.
  • The Bears and their opponents have yet to hit the over this season.
  • Williams has passed for 267 yards this year, with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. His average of four yards per pass attempt is the lowest among NFL starters.
  • Williams’ average pass was thrown in 2.59 seconds against Houston, the sixth-fastest in the NFL in Week 2.
  • Swift has yet to score a rushing touchdown this season and has totaled 48 rushing yards on 24 carries.
  • D.J. Moore is Chicago’s leading receiver with 11 catches for 89 yards. he has been targeted 18 times by Williams.
  • Darrell Taylor and Gervon Dexter lead the Bears with two sacks apiece. T.J. Edwards leads the team with 23 tackles, including two TFLs.
  • Khalil Herbert is Chicago’s only offensive player to score a touchdown this season. Tyrique Stevenson had a pick-six in Week 1, and Jonathan Owens scored on a blocked punt in the same game.
  • The Bears are averaging three yards per play this season, the worst by any team through Week 2 since the 2006 Raiders.

Colts Trends

  • Anthony Richardson has 416 passing yards, three touchdowns (sixth in the NFL), and four interceptions this year. He has completed 49.1% of his passes, averaging 208 yards per game and 7.8 per attempt.
  • Richardson had three pass plays of 50 yards or more out of 19 attempts against the Texans in Week 1 — a 60-yard touchdown to wide receiver Alec Pierce, a 54-yard touchdown to wide receiver Ashton Dulin, and a 57-yard pass to Pierce. He also has five rushes of 10 or more yards.
  • Pierce has caught eight passes on 10 targets for 181 total yards (sixth in the NFL) and two touchdowns. He is averaging four catches and 90.5 yards per game through two games.
  • Running back Jonathan Taylor is averaging 5.4 yards per rushing attempt and has 151 yards on the ground through two games with one score.
  • Indianapolis is 1-1 ATS spread this season. The Colts have a 54.5% implied probability of winning today’s contest.
  • The Colts have been favored once this season, a 16-10 Week 2 loss to the Packers.
  • Safety Nick Cross leads the NFL with 29 tackles.
  • Indianapolis has allowed 474 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per attempt in two games — including 53 rushes for 261 yards against the Packers last week.

Why the Bears Will Win

Chase Daniel says Williams hasn’t been as bad as he looks but his statistics paint a different picture. The rookie will have a breakout game this season and he’ll have an excellent chance today if Waldron turns him loose. The key is finding the open receiver and attacking the Indianapolis defense across multiple zones. Moore will draw double coverage with Allen out, so Kmet, Swift, and Rome Odunze could have big games. The Bears should be able to move the ball today, but the Colts will be stingy in giving up touchdowns. The game will likely come down to defense and special teams so Chicago has a slight edge there. Indianapolis is slightly favored simply because they are the host team.

Why the Colts Will Win

The key to beating Chicago is pressuring Williams and if the Colts are as relentless as the Texans were last week, it will be a long day for the Bears. Houston pressured Williams on 36 of 37 passing attempts with seven sacks, 11 QB hits, and nine TFLs. The Colts will also try to neutralize Chicago’s non-existent ground game. Williams isn’t ready to carry a team yet and Indianapolis knows it. For instance, the Bears have been denied a first down on 75% of their third down attempts this season so the Colts will be keying on the run on first and second downs. Keeping Chicago in untenable third-down situations will go a long way toward winning the game.

Did You Know?

The Colts weren’t always an AFC team, and they used to play the Bears twice each season before the AFL-NFL merger. The two teams have played 44 times since 1953, and the Colts won 25 of those games. Chicago is 4-2 against the Colts since the franchise moved from Baltimore to Indianapolis in the middle of the night on March 28, 1984. One of those losses was in Super Bowl XLI, which Indianapolis won 29-17. Peyton Manning was named MVP, but Devin Hester was the game’s star. Enjoy the memory.

Game Day Quotes

  • “It was definitely a little chaotic out there [on offense]. Just a lot of things we have to work out. [Caleb] is taking too many hits. We’ve got to run the ball better. The main thing is establishing an identity on offense, so we’ve got to figure that out. That’s what it comes back to. It will be sort of the challenge[against the Colts] and trying to establish that.” – Kmet
  •  “Allen will be ready when he’s ready; when his body tells him. We have a really good training staff, and those guys are trying to get him back as soon as possible. Keenan has been working diligently to get that done. He has been on the field. He has been moving and cutting. We’ll see where it goes next week.” – Matt Eberflus

Injury Report

Players of the Game

The quickest way to spark a sputtering offense is to re-establish Swift as the versatile, dangerous playmaker the Bears thought they had picked up in free agency. Matt Pryor will be starting at right guard today with Teven Jenkins shifting to the left side because Davis has been awful. Expect the Bears to try to establish the run early. Kmet will be a key, but a game that comes down to special teams and defense means those players will be the deciding factor. Look for big games by linebackers Edwards, Jack Sanborn, and Tremaine Edmunds. Cairo Santos and Tory Taylor will be Chicago’s biggest weapons today.

Richardson is a bit of a gunslinger and has been picked off four times in two games. Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, and Kevin Byard III could be the difference makers if the Bears beat the Colts today. Austin Booker is playing a homecoming game today and it would be nice to see him get on the stat sheet.

Prediction

Our own Sean Holland predicts the Bears will beat the Colts 21-17 today. I’m on the fence because I think Williams and his offensive pals will have a tough time getting into the end zone. With that in mind, I’ll take the Bears 25-23 on the strength of a defensive score and a six-pack of field goals by Santos, including a game-winning kick on Chhicago’s final possession. It would be nice to see Williams throw for a touchdown but I don’t know if that will happen today.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 22, 2024
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