Rome Odunze
(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Rome Odunze Is About to Break Out

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 29, 2024

In April, the Bears selected Rome Odunze at No. 9 overall, their second of two first-round picks after choosing quarterback Caleb Williams as the top pick. Odunze was their wide receiver taken in the draft behind Marvin Harrison Jr. (No. 4, Cardinals) and Malik Nabers (No. 6, Giants).

Odunze led the nation in yards receiving at Washington last season and had the advantage of starting his NFL career hidden in the towering shadows of Williams and veteran pass catchers Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. A top-10 pick rarely has the look and feel of an afterthought, but in Odunze’s case, that is precisely the case. But hold the phone for a minute. Odunze is Chicago’s top rookie through three weeks, though his success will ultimately be tied to the player who has to get him the ball.

Nabers is off to a fast start and has quickly established himself as New York’s best offensive weapon. He has 35 receptions for 386 yards and three scores for the 2-2 Giants. Nabers left Thursday’s game against the Cowboys with a concussion and his status for Week 5 is unknown. Harrison Jr. has had a tougher time in Arizona. He’s yet to establish an on-field rapport with Kyler Murray and has just 10 catches for 198 yards in three contests. Murray and Harrison have also missed on 12 of 22 targets.

Williams and Odunze have connected just nine times in 20 attempts, but the two rookies enjoyed mini-breakouts in last Sunday’s 21-16 loss to the Colts. Odunze hauled in six passes for 112 yards and a touchdown last week. Keep an eye on the Bears today if you’re looking for a potential breakout by both rookies. Let’s break it down.

  1. Odunze has amassed 155 of his 156 yards against zone coverage. Like the Colts, the Rams play Cover-3 and have played zone on 77.9% of their snaps this season, fifth-most in the NFL. They have allowed the second-highest target share (53.2%) to the outside.
  2. Cover-3 is a single-high safety zone scheme. That matchup usually favors a typical X-receiver, which is Odunze’s role in Chicago’s offense. The rookie’s collegiate yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3 was 2.99, up from 2.37 vs. all other coverages
  3. His percentage of Williams’s first-read targets has gone up every game, from 10% in Week 1 to 27% in Week 3. Expect another increase this afternoon.
  4. Odunze’s 22.3 average depth of target last week also ranked first amongst WRs with five or more targets.
  5. Chicago’s offense hit its stride in the fourth quarter against the Colts. Williams completed 14 passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns in the final 15 minutes. Odunze was responsible for four of those receptions, including a 14-yard connection on third-and-5 and a 1-yard score that brought the Bears within 14-9.
  6. Williams and Odunze combined for 245 air yards last week (133 yards in missed targets). If Williams had been more accurate, Odunze would have had a monster game and the Bears would have won. If you’ve already given up on the rookie QB, that stat means nothing. I haven’t, and I believe both will break out today.

Odunze’s ceiling is stratospherically high. His build is similar to Ja’Marr Chase at 6-foot-3, 212 pounds, though Odunze is a little bigger. He grades in the 94th percentile in speed score for all rookies and also 97th for catch radius. In fantasy formats, Odunze has climbed as high as WR32, which means he’s a borderline WR1/WR2. That might be a little overhyped, but, as stated above, once (and if) Williams finds his accuracy, the two could be the best QB-WR combo in the NFL. The upcoming four-game stretch bodes well for the two rookies.

“The game we had? It’s a chapter,” Odunze said. “I think it’s just that. It’s a chapter and it’s a part of our journey, but it’s not the end-all-be-all. It was a great connection that we had… but it wasn’t enough to get the W either.”

“It’s kind of bittersweet. It’s things you can look at and be like, yeah, I need to do a little more of that, and there are things you can look at and say, ‘Hey, I didn’t do that very well, and things to improve on.’ So it’s a chapter that we’ll continue to learn from regardless of it all.”

Today’s tilt with the Rams could very well be another step forward in that maturation process, for both rookies.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 29, 2024
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