Bears Game Day: Got to Give Us What We Want, Got to Give Us What We Need

If the Bears had a theme song heading into their Week 5 matchup against the Rams, “Fight the Power” by Public Enemy is a fantastic fit. Most analysts figured the Bears would win at least two of their first four games if not three. Instead, Chicago is on the verge of falling to 1-3, and that one win on Opening Sunday could just as easily have been a loss, too. That said, both losses were winnable games.

The Bears have played exceptional defense, but the team’s offense — except for an occasional highlight or two — has been an abomination. Things are so bad that veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis had to figuratively sit offensive coordinator Shane Waldron down for a heart-to-heart. The Bears, so far, have had to win despite Waldron, not because of him.

“From the oldest guy in the room — being me — to the youngest guy, don’t feel like you can’t coach us,” Lewis said. “I want to be coached. I want to be great. … This is not for play. This is our job. We understand that. It’s a highly stressful, production-based business and we’ve all got to be doing the same things or everybody gets fired. Ego is supposed to be left at the door. That’s what it’s about. He’s very receptive to that.

“I think, obviously, coming in, we’ve got a bunch of dudes. Not just guys on the team or [in] this offense. We have dudes — dudes who have done it at a high level. Sometimes as the [incoming coach], you might be walking on eggshells. I just kind of put that to bed. Nobody’s sensitive in here. We want to win games just as bad as you do. It’s a collaborative effort in everything. This is not Pop Warner. We work together, side by side to get things done. That’s really what my message was.”

Sometimes the student becomes the teacher, but then again, five years is all that separates the two. Lewis is a 19-year veteran who will set the NFL record for most games played by a tight end this afternoon against the Rams. Waldron, in his first year with the Bears, deserves a bit of an ass-kicking, but Lewis chose to take a more diplomatic path to light a fire under Waldron’s backside. After three games, the Bears rank 31st in rushing and 30th in total yards, while quarterback Caleb Williams has completed less than 60 percent of his passes with a passing rating of 65.3.

Waldron immediately accepted the blame and vowed to be better. Taking accountability is the first step toward recovery, right?

“I’ve got to be better and I will [be], moving forward,” Waldron said.

“He stands up there and lists the plays that he could have called better,” Lewis said. “[Waldron] put it up on the board; we all see it. And I think that’s the best way to do it. I mean, we’re not kids, right? We respect that. Because everything is evaluated, especially from a player’s standpoint. Like we know we’re getting evaluated with whatever we’re doing out there. So when a coach throws himself in that pot of gumbo, then we’re all vested, we all have some skin in the game.”

Will Waldron’s accountability equate to better production and more points?

“You gotta go for what you know.” – Public Enemy.

The Bears are favored by three points over the Rams in their return to Soldier Field after two road contests. The over/under is 40.5, and Chicago is -154 on the money line (bet $154 to win $100 straight up).

Field Conditions

It will be a breezy 70 degrees under partly cloudy skies for today’s noon kickoff. Northeast winds could gust as high as 25 MPH during today’s game, which could affect special teams and downfield passing.

Bears Trends

This one never had a chance as Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams weren't on the same page.

But watch Rome put this safety in a blender! He's a lion hunting DB's out there, vicious power paired with fluidity. Absolutely terrifying cover. This rookie class is so freaking good lol pic.twitter.com/rD3fYKCMtR

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 27, 2024

• Williams has 630 passing yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions this year. He has completed 59.3% of his attempts, averaging 210 yards per game and 5.3 per attempt.
• Rome Odunze has 156 receiving yards this season on 20 targets and nine receptions. He’s averaging 52 receiving yards and three catches per game, with one touchdown. he and Williams established a QB1/WR1 connection in the 4th quarter of last week’s game. Keep an eye on that.
• Cole Kmet had his best game of the season against the Colts. He caught 10 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. He’s averaging 4.2 yards of separation per target, and he and Williams have connected on 15 of 17 targets.
• Tremaine Edmunds has 20 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and one interception in 2024. T.J. Edwards leads the Bears with 25 tackles, including two TFLs.
• Gervon Dexter and Darrell Taylor have two sacks apiece.
• The Bears have covered the spread when playing as at least 3-point favorites in their only opportunity this season.
• Chicago has yet to exceed the over in any of their games this season. The Bears have also covered the spread just once.
• This game has moved a 1/2 point in the last 24 hours towards the Bears.
• The Bears have covered the Spread in five of their last six games at Soldier Field

Rams Trends

• This is the first meeting between these teams since the Rams notched a 34-14 home win over the Bears in 2021.
• Running back Kyren Williams has five touchdowns this season, including one as a receiver.
• Matthew Stafford has 754 passing yards (which ranks sixth in the NFL), two touchdowns, and one interception. His completion percentage is 68.3% and he averages 251.3 yards per game, about 7.5 yards per attempt.
• Quentin Lake is pacing the Rames with 31 tackles, which is ninth-best league-wide.
• Byron Young leads the Rams with two sacks. Jared Verse has just one, but he has 4 TFLs among his 15 tackles.
• The Rams are 1-1 this season in games where they are underdogs by three points or more.
• Los Angeles snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a 27-24 win against the 49ers as a 6-point home underdog.
• The money line implies that Los Angeles has a 44.6% chance of winning.
• Two of three games involving the Rams have exceeded the over.

Why the Bears Will Win

I don’t think we’re talking enough about the play of the #Bears interior DL.

Both Andrew Billings and Gervon Dexter are top-10 in the NFL in pass-rush win rate for their position. This defense runs best when they get pressure up the middle, and we’re seeing that this year.

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) September 27, 2024

Williams has shown a few flashes of greatness through his first three games and is coming off his best performance as a pro. He had 363 passing yards and two touchdowns in a narrow loss to Indianapolis, as Odunze went over 100 yards for the first time in his career. The two should have breakout performances against a weak Los Angeles secondary. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and the second-highest EPA per dropback, according to Pro Football Focus.

That said, the Bears have to establish their ground game today because they can’t expect Williams to drop back nearly 60 times again. Roschon Johnson is expected to get more touches today but D’Andre Swift, averaging 1.8 YPC, is not the problem. The Bears struggle to complete their blocks when rushing the football, and defenses are stacking the line of scrimmage when Chicago has the ball. Look for Waldron to use the passing game to open up running lanes for his backs. That means Odunze and Cole Kmet could have big games today.

Waldron has to play to the strengths of D.J. Moore today, too. The Bears lack an offensive identity because they can’t run the ball and Moore has yet to have any big plays. The bigger concern is Waldron’s speed in getting plays to Williams. The rookie quarterback said that he isn’t getting to the line quickly enough to change plays as the defense dictates. Chicago will win handily today if the offense is as crisp and productive as it can be.

Why the Rams Will Win

Los Angeles upset the 49ers last week and earned its first win of the season. The Rams were without wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but Tutu Atwell stepped up with four receptions for 93 yards. They also leaned heavily on Williams, who had 89 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The Bears will have little trouble stopping the Rams’ ground game, but Stafford always plays well against Chicago. It will be a long afternoon at Soldier Field if Atwell has another big game.

Keep an eye on the Ram’s defense. Chicago has to prevent that unit from dictating momentum. Williams has been sacked 13 times in three games and has thrown four interceptions. That said, Los Angeles has just four sacks this season and has allowed their opponents a 7-to-1 turnover ratio. The Rams are also allowing 30.3 points per game. All signs point to a big win by the Bears, but Stafford is going to find a way to keep the game close. If the Bears neutralize Stafford, they’ll win. If not, the Rams will give Chicago its third consecutive loss.

Did You Know?

The two teams have a long history, but it’s a little surprising that 96 players have played for both organizations, including seven quarterbacks. Nick Foles, Steve Walsh, Billy Wade, Zeke Bratkowski, Chris Chandler, Rudy Bukich, and Carl Brumbaugh have lined up behind center for both teams. Current Bears Gerald Everett and Daniel Hardy have played for Los Angeles. Leonard Floyd is the most famous ex-Bear currently playing for the Rams. Kicker Carlos Huerta played for both teams in the same season (1996).

Sunday’s contest pits the youngest current NFL quarterback taken with the No. 1 overall pick in Williams, who is 22, against the oldest in Stafford, who is 36.

Chicago leads the all-time series with 54 wins against 39 losses, and the two teams have tied three times.

Game Day Quotes

• “Our desired identity hasn’t changed. We want the marriage of the run and the pass, we want to be multiple, and we want to be able to utilize our personnel in certain situations. The promising thing of this past week was seeing some of our passing game come to life … The thing we’re working on relentlessly is getting our run game going, improving that area so that we can play a balanced game.” – Waldron
• “I love preparing during the week and finally seeing those things come to fruition when it comes to game time. “It reassures you that the work you’re putting in and the things that you’re doing during the week are going to provide success for you on Sundays.” – Odunze

Injury Reports

• Bears (1-2): CB Terrell Smith (knee) and DT Zacch Pickens (groin) are out. Allen (heel), S Kevin Byard II (back), and DT Andrew Billings (unknown) are all questionable but expected to play. The Bears placed TE Stephen Carlson (collarbone) on injured reserve so he will miss at least four games.
• Rams (1-2): Kupp (ankle) and Nacua (knee) are out, while TE Davis Allen (back) is questionable.

Players of the Game

Montez Sweat has had a very quiet start to the season, though he has one sack and two TFLs among his six total tackles. He’s due for a big game but continues to face double teams. Williams should find a great deal of success throwing to Odunze, Moore, Kmet, and Allen if he can play. The Bears’ defense has played worse in each game since their Week 1 win over the Titans. Expect big plays by Jaylon Johnson and Jack Sanborn today. I also believe Edwards and Edmunds will have monster games today. If Johson goes off, he will supplant Swift as RB1, but where has Khalil Herbert been? He is the back that is best suited for Waldron’s offense.

Prediction

Our own Sean Holland previewed today’s game for Bears Insider on Friday. He predicts a 20-17 Chicago win but I’m on the fence here, so I’ll make two predictions. In my first, the Bears break the 30-point barrier and trash Los Angeles 34-16. In my second, Chicago’s offense continues to struggle, so the Rams will win 16-10. I guess you can say the only thing I’m sure of is that Los Angeles will not score more than 16 points today. That should mean a Bears win under normal circumstances, but Chicago’s offense is still a little too undependable. The unit is potentially high-powered and big games are still in its future. It would be nice if today is their first.