Caleb Williams
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

Bears Game Day: Freak Out in a Moonage Daydream

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 6, 2024

Whether you like him or not, Caleb Williams has his best chance of rookie season success staring him right in the face. Why? The Bears today start a string of five consecutive games against the NFL’s bottom-feeding pass defenses. All rank in the bottom six in yards allowed per pass attempt.

  • Panthers: 7.28, 27th
  • Jaguars: 7.68, 30th
  • Commanders: 7.47, 28th
  • Cardinals: 8.09, 31st
  • Patriots: 7.53, 29th

The injury-plagued Panthers allow 358 yards per game (27th) and 5.77 yards per play (26th). All signs therefore point to an offensive breakout for Chicago, which averages 19.8 points per game. It will be breezy at Soldier Field, but today’s tilt should help Williams and wide receiver D.J. Moore find their missing on-field chemistry. Moore, who led the Bears in catches (96) and receiving yards (1,364), is averaging 47.3 yards per game. The two have been off target on several occasions this fall.

Pump the brakes just a bit, however. Moore will be covered by Jaycee Horn, who has shut down some of the league’s best receivers. Chris Olave had one catch for a negative six yards against Horn, while Davante Adams (1-15) and Ja’Marr Chase (1-11) didn’t fare much better.

D’Andre Swift had his first signature game as a Chicago Bear in last week’s 24-18 win over the Rams. He should have a big game today. Defensive lineman Derrick Brown is out for the season with a torn meniscus. Inside linebacker Shaq Thompson tore his Achilles tendon last week and is also done for the year. Swift paced the Bears with 165 all-purpose yards last week, and he’ll get to the second level consistently today. Linebacker Josey Jewell is also injured, so Carolina is down three key defensive players. Cole Kmet could also have a big game today, too.

The Bears are a consensus four-point favorite after the spread opened at Chicago -5.5. The over/under is 42.5 and the Bears are -200 on the money line (bet $200 to win $100 straight up).

Field Conditions

The game time temperature will be in the low 70s, but keep an eye on the wind. Chicago should see sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range with gusts hitting 25 to 30. That will affect the passing and kicking games for both teams.

Bears Trends

  • Chicago has won four of their five previous games against the Panthers. The Bears have outscored Carolina by 16 points in those contests.
  • The Bears have won their only game this season when playing as at least 4-point favorites.
  • The Bears have been money line favorites in two other matchups this season, and they won both.
  • Chicago has won seven consecutive games at home, the longest current streak in the NFL. They’ve covered in five of those tilts.
  • Williams has 787 passing yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions this year. He has completed 61.7% of his attempts, averaging 196.8 yards per game and 5.6 per attempt.
  • Swift averages 3.0 yards per carry (51st in the NFL) and has 161 total rushing yards. He has scored one rushing TD this season.
  • Gervon Dexter is having a monster year. The second-year DT has 12 tackles, three TFLs, and three sacks.
  • Jaquan Brisker is having an even better year. The third-year safety has 35 tackles, three TFLs, one sack, and one interception.
  • The Bears have allowed just two passing touchdowns this season.

Panthers Trends

  • Carolina has covered the spread one time this season (1-3-0).
  • The Panthers and their opponents have hit the over in three of four games this season.
  • Running back Chuba Hubbard leads the Panthers with 296 rushing yards, averaging 74.0 yards per game and 5.4 per carry (eighth in the NFL).
  • Quarterback Andy Dalton, who formerly played for Chicago, has 539 passing yards in two games with five touchdowns, and one interception.
  • Dalton completed 70.3% of his passes for 319 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs against the Raiders two weeks ago but was less efficient against Cincinnati in Week 4.
  • Diontae Johnson is Carolina’s top receiver. He’s caught 20 of 39 targets for 239 yards and two scores, with 86% if that production coming after Dalton replaced Young at quarterback.
  • Xavier Legette is averaging 13.5 yards per catch with Dalton running the offense. He averaged 8.8 when Young lined up behind the center.
  • Horn has 17 tackles including two TFLs. He has defended three passes and has one interception.

Why the Bears Will Win

Dalton is a remarkable story, but he’s faced two of the league’s weaker defenses since assuming the starting role. Williams, on the other hand, has improved each week but has yet to dominate a game. The gusty winds might dictate otherwise, but the Bears’ offense should outperform Carolina’s today.

The Panthers are near the bottom of the league in sacks with five, and Williams has been excellent with a clean pocket this season. The rookie was 29 of 43 for 331 yards, with 15 first downs and a touchdown while facing minimal pressure two weeks ago. More importantly, Williams averaged just 2.31 seconds to throw the ball. We can expect him to pick the Panthers clean today with a narrative-busting effort.

Chicago is also coming off of its strongest effort on the defensive side of the ball. I’m high on Austin Booker today, who has been so close to dominating when he gets his snaps. I’m leaning toward a defensive score by Chicago this afternoon, too. I expect the Bears to swarm Dalton and the Panthers who will counter with their running game.

On the flip side, Carolina is very vulnerable defensively with three key injuries to their front seven. Moore, Swift, Kmet, Keenan Allen, and/or Rome Odunze could have their best games of the season. This is not a revenge game for Moore, by the way, who had 58 reception yards in last year’s ugly 16-13 win over the Panthers. Tyson Bagent subbed for Justin Fields in that game.

It’s a shame that Williams, this year’s top pick, won’t play against Young, who was selected number one overall a year ago.

Why the Panthers Will Win

Analysts are pushing the Dalton revenge factor, which is why the spread has been shrinking, but the veteran quarterback has been a journeyman for most of his career. Vengeance is probably not going to be Dalton’s primary motivating factor. He’s 1-1 as a starter and if anything, wants to bounce back after last week’s 34-24 loss to the Bengals. The 14-year veteran has thrown for 39,050 and 251 touchdowns, 26th and 24th all-time. Dalton needs three touchdown passes to tie Dan Fouts for No. 23.

Dalton may not be the difference between winning and losing today, however. The Bears have not been as strong at stopping the run this year as they were in 2023. They can beat the Bears if Hubbard has a strong game and Carolina limits turnovers. They’ll also need to win the field position battle, which may be tough considering the booming leg of Bears punter Tory Taylor.

Did You Know?

Everybody is recapping “the trade” so we will, too.

On March 10, 2023, the Bears and Panthers completed a trade that sent Moore and several draft picks from Carolina to Chicago for the right to draft Bryce Young. What did the Bears get in return?  Right tackle Darnell Wright, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, and Taylor in addition to Moore and the pick used to select Williams. The Panthers also owe the Bears their second-round selection in 2025.

Game Day Quotes

  • “Guys felt some type of way that [Moore] was gone because he was a main guy in this franchise… Any time you lose a guy like that or Brian Burns or Donte Jackson — it’s just a part of the business. But guys were definitely conflicted about it just because he was a big face in this locker room.” – Horn
  • “It’s really remarkable when you think about it, how [the trade that netted Moore ] all fell together like that. A lot of that is luck. I mean a lot of that you can’t predict. But it’s also putting yourself in a position [to capitalize]. Ryan Poles and his staff did a great job of that.” – Matt Eberflus

Injury Reports

Players of the Game

The Moore-Horn matchup is intriguing but Moore needs a big game and he’s motivated. Horn, by the way, has two of five pass interference penalties called against Carolina this season. Williams will try to test Horn with an occasional deep route. Odunze and Allen have been relatively quiet, too.

Still, I think defense and special teams will be the keys to victory today. With that in mind, I’ll take Brisker, Taylor, Sweat, and Dexter, with a side of Kyler Gordon and Jack Sanborn. Booker has five solo tackles and one TFL this season but has yet to get to the quarterback. The rookie will get his first NFL sack today.

Oh, give me Swift, too. I believe he’ll average six-plus yards per touch in today’s game.

Prediction

Sean Holland analyzed today’s game for Bears Insider and predicted a 27-20 win. I like the Bears today but in a lower-scoring contest. Give me Chicago in a hard-fought 23-14 win.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 6, 2024
Bears Insider © Copyright 2024, All Rights Reserved
Back to top button