It’s Time for Matt Eberflus to Reverse His Road Record

The Bears are 4-2 this year and have won three straight games, two at Soldier Field and one in England against the Jaguars. Chicago was the home team in that contest, and its streak of home wins has reached nine, including the game in London. It’s the longest current streak in the NFL, and the team’s longest streak since it won 10 consecutive games in Chicago in 2005-06. On the flip side, the Bears have won just three of 19 away games since Matt Eberflus was named head coach.

It’s a little early to talk about the playoffs, but the Bears have a 62% chance of earning a Wild Card entry. If they win two of their next three, the odds increase to 74%. Sweeping the Commanders at Washington, the Cardinals in Arizona, and the Patriots at home would give the Bears a 90% chance of making the postseason. You could make a case that all four NFC North teams could be 7-2 entering Week 11, when Chicago hosts the Packers.

• Bears (4-2): at Washington, at Arizona, home vs. New England.
• Packers (5-2): at Jacksonville, home vs. Detroit, Bye Week.
• Vikings (5-2): Bye Week, home vs. Indianapolis, at Jacksonville.
• Lions (5-1): home vs. Tennessee, at Green Bay, at Houston.

The Packers and Vikings should win both of their games, though Minnesota has been exposed in consecutive losses to the Lions and Rams. Detroit is down defensive ends Aidan Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport, which will help quarterbacks Jordan Love of Green Bay and C.J. Stroud of the Texans. The Bears have three winnable games, though the Commanders will be tough.

Sunday’s game between Chicago and Washington has big playoff implications. The Bears are the No. 7 seed in the NFC right now. Washington is the No. 2 seed because they lead the NFC East. A loss to Chicago on Sunday combined with an Eagles win over the Bengals would drop the Commanders out of the top seven. And you thought the game was flexed to 3:25 PM just because of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. If the season ended today, these two teams would meet in a Wild Card match at Northwest Stadium. So yes, you can call the game a postseason preview with real legitimacy.

The Bears have lost four consecutive road tilts going back to Week 12 last season when they beat the Vikings in Minnesota 12-10. Their remaining schedule includes road games at Arizona, Green Bay, Detroit, San Francisco, and Minnesota. If you’re looking for a silver lining, Chris Simms of Pro Football Talk, who has predicted the correct outcome of every Bears game this season (6-0), chose Chicago this week. Additionally, Marcus Mariota may substitute at quarterback for the injured Daniels (ribs).

Pete Prisco of CBS also favors the Bears. He is basing that on the absence of a marquee matchup between the top two picks in this year’s draft.

“Without Daniels, the pick is the Bears since they have the better defense,” Prisco wrote. “Williams will continue to show improvement.”

Sunday’s match is a homecoming game for Williams and Montez Sweat. Chicago’s rookie quarterback grew up in the D.C. area. Sweat played for the Commanders for 4.5 seasons until he was traded to the Bears last November. Both players are more focused on the game than the intrigue, the opponent, or the location.

“My job is to go win games on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays,” Williams said. “That’s it.”

We can add Fridays and Saturdays if/when the Bears make the playoffs. They won’t do that unless Eberflus and his squad can start winning away games. There is no better time to start than Sunday. Chicago plays all of its NFC North opponents in six of the final eight weeks of the season. Their opponents thus far are a combined 15-25 (.375). Chicago’s strength of schedule going forward is .566. The Bears have been outscored 40-29 in two road losses this season, and they’ve lost by an average of 16.5 points in 19 road contests under Eberflus.

That changes this weekend. Eberflus has to reverse some concerning trends to manifest that into reality.

• He’s never won a road game against a team with a winning record. Eberflus beat the 3-3 Patriots in 2022. Last year, he beat the Commanders (2-3) and Vikings (6-6).
• Eberflus has never won a road game on a Sunday afternoon. Last year’s win against the Commanders was a Thursday night affair. Eberflus beat the Patriots and Vikings on Monday Night Football.
• At 14-26 (.350) overall, Eberflus is the third-worst head coach in team history. John Fox was 14-34 (.292) and Abe Gibron was 11-30 (.274).

Still, Eberflus is trending up. He’s won nine of his previous 14 games, and his defense has held its opponents to 21 points or fewer in 12 straight. The Bears have outscored their opponents 95-44 during their three-game winning streak, and have scored 35+ points in two straight games. Chicago is averaging 24.67 points per game this season. That makes the formula for success pretty simple. If the Bears can score at least 22 points on Sunday they should win. They haven’t done that on the road since losing 31-25 to the Lions in Detroit last November. The Bears started their defensive streak the following week, and that trend should continue on Sunday.

The path to the playoffs requires 10 wins. If the Bears win Sunday, and then beat the Cardinals and Patriots, a 3-3 record against NFC North opponents will give them 10 wins minimally. That doesn’t make Sunday’s contest a must-win game, but the boost would be immense. A road win over a first-place team is another, much-needed benchmark for Eberflus and his charges.