Bears Game Day: November Reign

Welcome to the Bears-Packers rivalry, Caleb Williams. The Bears have dropped 10 straight in the series, and have lost 50 of their previous 65 tilts against Green Bay. Forrest Gregg was coaching the Packers and Guns-n-Roses were young rock stars the last time Chicago routinely dominated their NFC North rivals. Chicago’s fortunes in this rivalry changed as dramatically as the band’s did when they released The Spaghetti Incident.

The Bears drafted Williams as franchise quarterback 3.0 after Justin Fields and Matthew Trubisky failed. Fields was 0-6 in three seasons against the Packers, while Trubisky finished his tenure in Chicago with just one win against the Pack. The bar for Chicago’s rookie is therefore very low. A win today would be a great start, but the Bears look a lot more like a downward-spiraling franchise that has a very good chance of closing the season with 11 straight losses. Oh, the humanity.

The Bears were 4-2 after leaving London in what feels like a decade ago. They’ve dropped three straight, can’t move the ball offensively, and fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron earlier this week. Thomas Brown replaced Waldron and will be tasked with restoring Williams’ confidence. Expect a greater emphasis on running the ball and attacking Green Bay’s defense with screen passes and RPO.

Additionally, head coach Matt Eberflus is fighting to keep his job, and a win against the Packers might be his last saving grace. The Bears aren’t likely to fire Eberflus if they lose today, but if they look as poorly prepared and uninspired as they did in last week’s 19-3 loss to the Patriots, GM Ryan Poles may not have any option but to fire his head coach. The Bears are a lot closer to earning a top-five draft pick than sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card.

Brown could theoretically rise from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator to head coach in a matter of 7-8 days. That seems sadly typical of a franchise that has lost its way for the better part of three decades.

The Bears close out their 2024 schedule with one more game against the Packers, two against the Lions and Vikings, plus tilts against the 49ers and Seahawks. If they finish 4-13, they’ll be in the exact same position the franchise was in when they fired Mike Ditka in 1992. Few teams are generationally bad, but then again, the team is run by a family that knows absolutely nothing about football.

The Packers originally opened as 6-point favorites. The spread shifted a half-point in favor of Green Bay once Waldron was fired, but has since dropped a point and now sits at Packers -5.5. The over/under for today’s game is 40.5  and the Bears are +200 on the money line (bet $100 to win $200 if Chicago wins straight up).

Field Conditions

Mid-morning showers will give way to overcast skies and a temperature near 60 degrees. Southwest winds ranging from 10 to 15 mph should have little effect on either team’s passing attacks or kicking games.

Bears Trends

• The Bears have not scored a touchdown in their last two games.
• Chicago is 4-4-1 against the spread this season.
• Chicago has yet to cover as underdogs of 5.5 points or more.
• The Bears have dropped seven straight when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times.
• Chicago has yet to run an offensive play in the red zone in the first quarter this season.
• The Bears had a third down conversion rate of 7% in Week 10 — the worst in the NFL.
• Teams have hit the over in three of nine games the Bears have played.
• Chicago’s offense is averaging 277.7 yards per game which is 30th in the NFL.
• The Bears are ranked 7th in pass defense (190.4 YPG) but 24th in run defense (130 YPG).
• Williams has been sacked 38 times this season. Ouch.

Packers Trends

• The Packers are 1-0 against the spread this year when playing as at least 5.5-point favorites.
• Four of Green Bay’s nine games with a set total have hit the over.
• The Packers are averaging 154.8 yards rushing, the league’s third-best mark.
• Green Bay’s defense has allowed a passer rating of just 34.7 on 3rd down (56 pass attempts) this season, tops in the NFL.
• Jordan Love and Malik Willis have taken only 12 sacks combined this season, though Love has tossed 10 interceptions.
• Josh Jacobs has six carries that have gone for 20+ yards this season.
• Wide receiver Jayden Reed has carried the ball as a runner 11 times this season and is averaging 10 YPC.

Why the Bears Will Win

Call me crazy, but I’m hoping the Bears don’t knock Love out of the game. I’d bet the house Eberflus hasn’t properly planned to face Willis, and he’s the type of quarterback that will destroy Chicago. So the key, believe it or not, is pressuring Love and hoping he turns the ball over. That said, Green Bay is going to run the ball heavily this afternoon, so the Bears have to find a way to stop Jacobs. Reed always plays well against the Bears, and he could have another big game today.

Nobody knows what Chicago’s offense will look like today, but I believe D’Andre Swift and Cole Kmet will be heavily involved. Williams needs a reset of sorts, so the offense may look a little safer than it has previously, though that is a difficult sentence to write. The focus is going to be on keeping Williams upright while controlling the football. If Chicago wins the time of possession game and doesn’t give the ball away, they have a shot to beat the Packers.

Chicago needs to score in the first quarter and has to keep the score competitive. Falling behind again is a recipe for disaster. Keeping the Packers in long yardage and passing situations is the Bears’ best chance to win.

Why the Packers Will Win

Green Bay is going to ram the football down Chicago’s throat. Simply put, teams that carry the football 30 or more times per game always beat the Bears. The Packers are averaging 31.1 running plays per game, so Eberflus and his defense should be prepared for the status quo. Reed is Green Bay’s X-factor, especially against the Bears, and he should get multiple opportunities to carry the ball. Jacobs will keep Chicago’s linebackers and defensive backs busy.

Matt LaFleur has never lost to the Bears and has continually outcoached Chicago since taking over in Green Bay. No head coach is better prepared to beat the Bears than LaFleur, and today will be no exception. The Packers will pressure Williams and stop Chicago’s run game by keeping eight or more in the box. Williams has been woefully inaccurate when throwing downfield so Lafleur will concede that until Chicago’s rookie quarterback proves otherwise.

Did You Know?

The Bears beat the Packers 30-10 on October 25, 1992, to improve to 4-3 before finishing 5-11. Ditka was fired after that season and Chicago is 15-51 (.268) against Green Bay since. Jim Harbaugh quarterbacked the Bears in that game, while Brett Favre led the Packers. Green Bay has had an unprecedented run at quarterback since, and all have owned Chicago for three-plus decades.

• Favre 23-10 vs. Chicago
• Aaron Rodgers 24-5
• Love 2-0

https://twitter.com/Ol_TimeFootball/status/1714488848678588823

This 104-year-old rivalry has been one-sided of late, as Green Bay has won 10 straight. This year’s team feels a lot like that ’92 squad, which finished with a 1-8 record before Ditka was axed. The Bears have had more head coaches in 30 years than Green Bay has had quarterbacks.

Game Day Quotes

• “It would mean a lot. We’ve been getting our ass whooped for a long time now. I don’t have a win [against Green Bay], so it would mean a lot to me personally. I’m just looking forward to the matchup, again, the rivalry in itself, but they’ve got some good guys. We also have a lot of respect for the head coach and what he does on that side of the ball. I’m looking forward to it.” – Jaylon Johnson
• “This is a game that means a lot to me and a lot of people in this building. What a great opportunity to get back on track in our first division game, especially against the Packers at home.” – Kmet

Injury Reports

• Bears (4-5): Offensive linemen Kiran Amegadije (calf) and Teven Jenkins (ankle) are out, as is safety Jaquan Brisker (concussion), who was placed on IR earlier this week. Montez Sweat has been dealing with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable.
• Packers (6-3): OT Jordan Morgan (shoulder) is out. Defensive lineman Colby Wooden (shoulder) is doubtful, while defensive backs Jaire Alexander (knee) and Evan Williams (hamstring) are questionable.

Players of the Game

It could be a long day for the Bears but Chicago’s secondary might have some success against Love. Tyrique Stevenson needs a redemption game, and Elijah Hicks has played well in Brisker’s absence. I’m looking for bug games from Kyler Gordon, Jack Sanborn, and Gervon Dexter. On offense, Kmet and Swift will be Chicago’s best weapons. Here’s hoping Brown can light a fire under D.J. Moore.

Predictions

Sean Holland provided his analysis of today’s game and predicted a 24-10 Packers win. I’m taking Green Bay 16-10 in a low-scoring affair.