Matt Eberflus
(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Bears Are a Legitimate Playoff Team, But…

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 14, 2024

The Bears beat the Jaguars on Sunday for their fourth win of the season. Caleb Williams led the team to victory with four touchdown passes, two apiece to Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen. Chicago’s defense held its opponent to 21 points or fewer for the 12th consecutive game, despite losing Jaquan Brisker, Tyrique Stevenson, and Kyler Gordon to injuries. The Bears have a franchise quarterback and three straight victories for the first time since 2020, the last time they had at least four wins through six games.

Chicago finished 8-8 that year but were 6-3 when Mitchell Trubisky started. They also made the playoffs that season, losing the Wild Card game 21-9 to the Saints. They haven’t been to the NFL’s postseason tournament since.

According to the NFL Football Operations website, NFL teams that start 4-2 have a 67% chance of making the playoffs. That’s rarified air for GM Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears were 3-14 in year one of the rebuild, and they were 7-10 last season before replacing Justin Fields with Williams. If Chicago can beat the Commanders in two weeks, those odds jump to 77%.

Winning five of your first seven games almost always guarantees success, but the Bears’ quirky schedule changes that calculus significantly. Despite its lofty start, Chicago is still in last place in the NFC North, the NFL’s strongest division. The Packers have a slight edge based on strength of victory in common games. In layman’s terms, Green Bay beat the Colts and the Bears did not. That doesn’t matter, because other significant factors will come to play as the season progresses.

Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago have a combined record of 17-5 (.773) through six weeks and all four teams have at least four wins. That hasn’t happened in any division since 2002, the first year that the NFL went to eight divisions of four teams. All four teams have a shot to make the playoffs if the season ended today, and the Vikings (+63), Lions (+60), Bears (+47), and Packers (+41) are the top four NFL teams in point differential. Chicago is currently the NFC’s No. 8 seed but only seven teams make the playoffs.

Now I have to be a buzzkill, though I don’t want to be.

  • The Bears’ four wins have come against the Titans (1-4), Rams (1-4), Panthers (1-5), and Jaguars (1-5). That’s a .182 strength of victory, by far the worst among all teams with at least four wins.
  •  Their losses have come to the Texans (5-1) and the Colts (3-3). Houston is a legitimate threat to win the Super Bowl this year, but those four wins against the league’s bottom feeders reduce the Bears’ strength of schedule to .353.
  • The Bears have two games remaining against teams with losing records. Chicago plays the Cardinals (2-4) on November 3 and the Patriots (1-5) on November 10. If the Bears beat those teams and the Commanders, they will be 7-2 heading into what has been referred to as “the gauntlet.” A 7-2 record gives Chicago a 90% chance of making the playoffs. That drops to 74% if the Bears lose one of those games.
  • Things get nuts starting November 17. The Bears host the Packers that day, beginning a tenuous stretch of games against the league’s best teams. In their final eight games, Chicago plays each of the NFC North rivals twice, plus the 49ers (3-3) and Seahawks (3-3).
  • Chicago’s remaining strength of schedule is .629 but jumps to .727 starting with the Green Bay game.
  • The Bears are asking Williams to lead them to the playoffs. Only 25 rookie quarterbacks have led their teams to the postseason since 2008. No rookie signal caller has ever started a Super Bowl.
  • Matt Eberflus has 0 wins against .500 teams or better in three seasons. He beat the Texans (2-1 at the time) and Patriots (3-3) in 2022. Last season, Chicago beat the Commanders (2-2), the Raiders (3-3), the Vikings (6-5), and the Lions (9-3).
  • Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur has never lost to the Bears, and he’s 4-0 against Eberflus. Chicago is 1-3 against the Lions and Vikings since 2022.
  • There are currently five teams with four wins ahead of the Bears thanks to tie-breakers. Two, Washington and Atlanta, lead their divisions. That means it will likely take at least 10 wins to make the playoffs, requiring the Bears to finish 6-5.
  • In theory, all four NFC North teams could finish with the same record and 1-1 head-to-head against each divisional opponent. A coin toss could end up being the deciding factor.
  • Chicago’s road to the playoffs will go through Minnesota, Green Bay, and Detroit. As fans, we shouldn’t want it any other way. If the Bears can at least split those six games, they’ll make the playoffs.

Here are the tie-breaking scenarios when three or more clubs finish with the same record.

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss.

Nos. 5 and 6 could be Chicago’s undoing if the determining process gets that far. Also, if two clubs remain tied after one or more clubs are eliminated during any step, the tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of the two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, the tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of the three-club format. The eliminated teams then have to go through the Wild Card tie-breaking rules, which are almost identical.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 14, 2024
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