Tyrique Stevenson
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

Bears Game Day: Love Rears Up Its Ugly Head

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 3, 2024

I was undecided about whether the Bears should fire or keep Matt Eberflus, but I’m now firmly ensconced in Camp Dismissal. If the Bears lose to the Cardinals today, Eberflus should be removed as head coach immediately following the game. Why? He has handled the Tyrique Stevenson situation in the most puzzling of ways. If you’re unaware, Stevenson was demoted after an unfathomable gaffe in last Sunday’s loss to the Commanders. The second-year cornerback then removed himself from practice upon learning of said demotion.

Stevenson is expected to be active today and play as a reserve to teammate Terell Smith.

We can all agree that discipline was warranted, even after Stevenson apologized and promised to learn from his mistake. The bigger issue is that Eberflus is losing the locker room. Stevenson should not dress today because he put himself ahead of his team twice within one week. Because he is going to dress and presumably play, Eberflus is doing the team a disservice by not starting his best 22 players.

GM Ryan Poles already has several reasons to justify dismissing Eberflus, but the head coach’s strongest trait is the undying support of his players, particularly the defense. That foundation has crumbled a bit this season and the Stevenson issue revealed more than a few subtle cracks. A loss today will likely create deeper dissension, but a win still may not be the salve the organization is hoping for.

Plainly stated, Eberflus has problems, and they’re starting to rear their ugly heads. The offensive captains had to have a sitdown with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after a Week 3 loss to the Colts. Eberflus has muffed on several challenges and the team has been a bit too undisciplined at times. They’ve lost three games by one score and coaching was a factor in each of them. Choosing to hand the ball off last Sunday at the goal line to backup center Doug Kramer was another in a growing line of puzzling decisions.

I gave Eberflus the benefit of the doubt because he was asked to tank in 2022. He turned the team around when he assumed defensive play calling last season. The Bears should be 5-2 minimally and you could make a decent case that they could be 7-0 despite terrible play in Weeks 2 and 3. They had a win all but sealed last week. If the head coach can’t close with a win on the line – something Eberflus has struggled with through his tenure in Chicago – he needs to be replaced.

Arizona is favored by one point today and the over/under is 44.5. Chicago is -120 on the money line (bet $100 to win $120 straight up). It’s best to pass on any bets involving the Bears because the team and its coaching staff are simply too unpredictable.

Field Conditions

State Farm Stadium in Glendale is climate-controlled so the weather isn’t an issue. The added heat you will feel is the fire that should be lit under the coaching staff’s backsides.

Bears Trends

  • Caleb Williams is 7-0 against the second-half spread. The only other quarterbacks with undefeated ATS records in the second half are Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson, each of whom has only started two games.
  • Teams that played a road game in Eastern Time followed by a home game in Mountain or Pacific Time the next week are 60-86-1 ATS over the last decade.
  • The Bears are 5-2 against the spread but the Cardinals are 5-3. Something’s gotta give this week.
  • Chicago has only allowed 20+ points once this season.
  • The Bears have won one of the four games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

Cardinals Trends

  • The Cardinals came back from a double-digit-point deficit last week to beat the Dolphins on the road. Teams coming off a comeback win of 10 or more points are 78-99-2 (44%) ATS the following week since 2020. Also of note here, the under is 96-80-3 in those games.
  • Kyler Murray had not won consecutive starts since October 2021 before doing so in the past two weeks against the Chargers and Dolphins. He has only won three straight starts twice in his career, with the last time coming during the 2020 season.
  • Murray has completed 67.2% of his passes for 1,638 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has 41 carries for 344 yards — 8.4 yards per carry — and two touchdowns.
  • Murray and running back James Conner, who has 129 carries for 557 yards and four touchdowns, present a second straight big challenge on the ground for the Bears.
  • Murray is 10-16 ATS in his career as a favorite (6-12 ATS as home favorite).
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. has 26 catches for 411 yards and five touchdowns. He had his second 100-plus-yard game last week against the Dolphins

Why the Bears Will Win

The Bears have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Analytics, so this is a game they cannot afford to lose. Their offense also regressed in their first game after a bye week and looked out of synch until late in the game. The Bears have to avoid another slow start and if they do, they will control the game and win.

Stevenson wasn’t the only player to let Chicago down last weekend. T.J. Edwards looked completely lost on the final play, meandering aimlessly just off the line of scrimmage as everything unfolded. If the Bears are struggling offensively, the defense will be tasked once again with keeping its opponent out of the end zone again. A low-scoring game favors Chicago, but breaking out offensively and keeping Arizona on its heels is a more desired outcome.

Eberflus and his charges need to be focused and must avoid the sloppy play that leads to unnecessary penalties and poor decisions. Waldron engineered his best game plan of the season in the game following the team’s Week 3 loss to the Colts. A similar effort today will give the Bears a much-needed win.

Why the Cardinals Will Win

Murray and Harrison are very close to becoming the outstanding tandem that Williams and Rome Odunze should be. Chicago’s secondary is hurting and they’re playing shorthanded, so expect Arizona to attack that unit early. Chicago will be in a tough but predictable hole if they quickly fall behind the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have an excellent two-headed rushing beast in Murray and Conner, too. Last week, Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., and Austin Ekeler combined for 167 yards on 31 carries, though the Bears kept Washington out of the end zone until the final play of the game. Chicago’s bend-but-don’t-break defense seems on the verge of a breakdown, especially given the team’s injuries and issues.

Did You Know?

Believe it or not, the Bears-Cardinals rivalry is the NFL’s oldest and longest-running matchup. They’re also the last two remaining franchises stemming from the league’s inception in 1920. The Bears played in Decatur that season while the Cardinals called Racine home. Both franchises moved to Chicago in 1922, where the Bears have remained. The Cardinals moved to Arizona in 1988 after 26 seasons in St. Louis.

The Bears currently lead the series with a record of 59-29 with six ties between the two clubs.

Red Grange made his NFL debut against the Cardinals in 1925. The game ended in a 0-0 tie, marking the first of 17 consecutive games in which one or both opponents were shutout, including three additional 0-0 ties. The Bears are 10-4 against the Cardinals since they relocated to Phoenix.

Game Day Quotes

  • “I live week to week, and I feel like every game is a big game. You put all your energy and all your focus into one game. That’s all you can do. And if you do anything else, you’re doing your team a disservice. We ask our players to do that and we ask our coaches to do that. We all have to do that. All of our energy is on [beating] Arizona.” – Eberflus
  • “They’re able to use a lot of blurry structures presnap with a three safety starting point and then rock and roll into different looks. So it’s a little different than other schemes. They might get into some of the final coverages or front structures that are normal. But the way they get to those is non-traditional.” – Waldron
  • “I’ve talked to Tyrique, He’s had a really good week of practice. He’s done well with refocusing. And I appreciate his efforts in moving into the next phase, which is Arizona.” – Eberflus

Injury Reports

Players of the Game

Nobody needs a bigger game than Stevenson so hopefully, his head is in the right place. That said, I think it’s time that Williams puts the team on his back and carries them. I’m expecting a career game from the rookie quarterback today. If he translates that to touchdowns, Chicago will win. D.J. Moore will have a big game, too, as will Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift. Of note, I’ve yet to predict Williams as a potential player of the game. I hope it will be a regular thing going forward.

Prediction

Sean Holland provided his analysis of today’s game and predicted a 24-21 Cardinals win. This game will go one of two ways in my opinion: Either the Bears will rise above their internal issues and soundly defeat Arizona, or they’ll carry that sack of woe onto the playing field and get destroyed. On the other hand, coaching may cost the Bears yet another win. I’m taking the Cardinals 21-20 based on the latter analysis.

 

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterNovember 3, 2024
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