Teven Jenkins
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

Bears Game Day: Running Up That Hill

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 15, 2024

The Bears are not a complete team, and one need only look at the team’s patchwork offensive line to see its most glaring hole. It’s almost funny (and not in a good way) that GM Ryan Poles — who played on the offensive line in college and as a member of the Bears’ practice squad two decades ago — refuses to aggressively address his team’s most obvious weakness. Offensive line incompetence hindered the development of Justin Fields and could slow the growth of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams as he transitions to the NFL.

  • Nate Davis is Chicago’s highest-paid offensive lineman. He’s earning $14.9 million this year and is blatantly stealing from the NFL’s oldest franchise. He’s only 27 years old, so he potentially has some projection left as long as he can stay on the field. That said, I believe he has peaked and is vastly overpaid.
  • Teven Jenkins is the unit’s best player, but he too has trouble staying on the field. Jenkins is in the final year of his rookie contract, and right now the Bears cannot afford to lose him.
  • Coleman Shelton is Chicago’s starting center. He’s the first line of protection for Williams, and he’s among the lowest-paid centers in the league. He’ll earn $1.8 million this season and he hasn’t played up to his contract so far.
  • Darnell Wright and Braxton Jones represent the future of this unit and both are playing on rookie contracts. Wright had a fantastic rookie season but Jones, in his third year with the Bears, has been inconsistent since Poles drafted him.

Believe it or not, the unit represents value from a dollar-to-statistics standpoint. The Bears offensive line earned high individual grades from Pro Football Focus and when the site put out its group grade, the line was ranked 14th in the league. So it’s a slightly better-than-mediocre group that represents a small portion of the payroll. Poles, who was an overachiever as a player, tends to get a little too cute when constructing his offensive line. The unit as a whole will earn approximately $20.5 million this season. By contrast, 12 offensive linemen will singly earn $20 million or more in 2024. Here’s the top five:

  1. Penei Sewell (Lions) $28 million
  2. Laremy Tunsil (Texans) $25 million
  3. Andrew Thomas (Giants) $23.5 million
  4. Trent Williams (49ers) $23.01 million
  5. Jordan Mailata (Eagles) $22 million

When you make your inevitable Williams comparisons to C.J. Stroud, look no further than the team’s offensive lines. Houston chose line help initially before supplementing its offense with playmakers, while the Bears are taking the opposite approach. The Texans were able to develop Stroud at a much quicker pace because they chose to protect him. Time will tell if Poles made the right decision, but if he doesn’t address the line this offseason it will be fair to question his abilities as the team’s top executive.

Houston is favored by six and hook in tonight’s contest, with the over/under set at 46.5. The Bears are plus $225 on the money line (bet $100 to earn $225 if Chicago wins outright). Call me crazy but I’m taking the Bears plus the points and the over. If Chicago can contain Stroud & Company, they’ll win outright. That’s a tall ask, however.

Field Conditions

The Texans play in a retractable domed stadium so weather will not be a factor. The temperature is expected to be slightly less than 90 degrees with a small chance of rain in Houston at kickoff, but the roof will be open.

Bears Trends

  • The Bears are 2-4 all-time against the Texans, having won back-to-back games in the series in 2020 and 2022.
  • Chicago is 0-2 in Houston. The last time they played there was the 2016 season opener, a 24-13 loss. It was one of three losses that season to Brock Osweiler with three different teams.
  • Eberflus went 7-2 against the Texans as the Colts defensive coordinator, including a win in the 2018 Wild Card game.
  • The Bears have lost seven Sunday Night Football games in a row dating to a December 2018 win over the Rams. They have lost nine road SNF games in a row. Their last win on Sunday night away from home came on Sept. 14, 2014, over the 49ers in Santa Clara.
  • Chicago’s record on SNF is 18-30 and 11-20 on the road.
  • The Bears failed to score an offensive TD in Week 1 and accumulated just 148 total yards of offense.
  • Eberflus is 11-17 against the spread as an underdog during his tenure in Chicago.
  • The Bears were 2-7 on the road last season, beating the Commanders 40-20 on October 5 and the Vikings 12-10 on November 27. They were 1-8 away from home in 2022.
  • Last season, the Bears won four out of the 13 games, or 30.8%, in which they were the underdog.
  • D.J. Moore totaled 1,364 yards receiving (sixth in the NFL) and eight touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) on 96 receptions, targeted 136 times, last year.
  • Montez Sweat had 12.5 sacks in 2023 between the Bears and Commanders plus 14 TFL and 57 tackles. He led both teams in sacks, an NFL first.

Texans Trends

  • The Texans haven’t been on Sunday Night Football since 2019. Stroud had played in one prime-time game in his career, the 2023 season finale and defacto AFC South championship, a 23-19 win over the Colts.
  • Houston has not closed as at least 6-point favorites since Week 16 of 2020.
  • Houston did cover nine times in 17 matchups with a spread last season.
  • The Texans put together a 5-2 record in games they were listed as the money line favorite last season (winning 71.4% of those games).
  • The Texans are 6-16-1 ATS as favorites since 2019. Stroud is 3-5 ATS as a favorite.
  • Stroud passed for 4,108 yards last year (to rank eighth in the NFL), with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. He completed 63.9% of his attempts while averaging 273.9 yards per game and 8.2 per attempt.
  • In 2023 with the Vikings, Danielle Hunter recorded 83 tackles, 23 TFL, and 16.5 sacks through 17 games.
  • Azeez Al-Shaair had 163 tackles, nine TFL, two sacks, and four passes defended for the Titans last season.

Why the Bears Will Win

The Bears covered in week one, and if their opportunistic defense continues to play at a high level, they could keep this game within reach. That said, if Williams can throw for 250+ yards without any picks I really like Chicago’s chances in this game. That is probably an unrealistic expectation, however, especially if Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze do not play. I’ve heard several times today that many analysts are predicting that no starting quarterback will throw for 300+ yards in any Week 2 game. That’s actually an advantage for Chicago in the Williams vs. Stroud matchup.

Last week, the Bears’ secondary held Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd to a combined 76 receiving yards on seven catches. A similar effort against the likes of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell will put Chicago in the win column for the second consecutive week.

Why the Texans Will Win

Stroud is very dangerous and continues to improve with each game he plays. Additionally, Houston’s wide receivers group is among the NFL’s best. If the Bears can’t contain the Texans’ offense, it’s going to be a long night in Houston. The Bears also struggle in nationally televised games, a trend they’re going to have to reverse if they expect to make the playoffs.

Houston’s offense won’t be the only source of heartburn for Chicago’s coaching staff. The Texans have one of the best defenses in the league and will pose a big challenge to Williams, his receivers, and running back D’Andre Swift. The Bears need to establish field position, control the line of scrimmage, create turnovers, and keep Williams upright to win. That’s a lot to ask.

Speaking of running backs, the Bears also have to find a way to stop Joe Mixon, who wore down the Colts last week thanks to 159 yards on the ground. The Texans are a dark-horse Super Bowl contender, and Bears fans are going to see why tonight. It looks like Poles is following Houston’s plan for accelerating his rebuild while taking a slightly different path. Tonight’s game will let us know how close or how distant the Bears are from that type of positive projectability.

Did You Know?

The Texans hold a 4-2 record in the six games between these two franchises.

The Bears lost 24-5 in their very first game against the Texans in 2004. I was at that game and it was so cold the head on my beer kept freezing. Game time temperatures were four degrees with wind chill readings well below zero. Chad Hutchinson started at quarterback for the Bears, and Paul Edinger accounted for all of Chicago’s offensive scoring. The Bears added a safety when Houston quarterback David Carr was called for intentional grounding while in his own end zone.

Hutchinson threw for 149 yards and couldn’t generate any offense. The game-time temperature will be nearly 100 degrees higher tonight. Here’s hoping Chicago’s offense heats up in a like manner.

Game Day Quote

  • “We’re here getting better. Just getting back out here, [we must] make sure we’re focused on the small things, the details, whether it’s [my] footwork, drops, things like that, or whether it’s routes, whether it’s the run game, hand placements, all these other things when blocking to make sure that as an offense we’re successful.” – Williams

Injury Report

  • Bears: OL Ryan Bates (elbow/shoulder) was placed on injured reserve and will miss the next four games minimally. Allen (heel) and Odunze (knee) are questionable and their availability will be a game-time decision. Odunze is projected to play according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
  • Texans: Cornerback Jeff Okudah (hip) was also placed on injured reserve and is out. Collins (illness) is questionable, as is running back Dameon Pierce (hamstring) and tight end Dalton Schultz (ankle).

Players of the Game

If Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings control the interior line, Sweat and Darrell Taylor will make things miserable for Stroud. Look for big games by Jaquan Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson, and Chicago’s secret weapons Tory Taylor and Cairo Santos. I also wouldn’t say no to another special teams score by Jonathan Owens. Keep an eye on Collin Johnson. He scored twice against the Texans in this year’s Hall of Fame game and he’s a big, capable target.

Prediction

The Bears won’t win this game unless their defense plays as well as they did against the Titans. That said, an upset could be in the making if Williams rebounds the way Chicago’s coaching staff expects him to. After some detailed research, I discovered that 55 of 60 analysts are picking the Texans over the Bears, including our own Sean Holland, who wrote that Houston will win 24-14. I’m almost always wrong when I disagree with Sean, but I’m predicting a 26-19 win by the Bears.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 15, 2024
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