Keenan Allen
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

Bears Game Day: Tip Up Your Cup and Throw Your Hands Up

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 13, 2024

Which Bears offensive player do we expect to have a big game when the Bears face the Jaguars in London on Sunday? Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron may have tipped his hand earlier this week, specifically mentioning wide receiver Keenan Allen.

“[Keenan] has done an excellent job knowing, hey, the ball hasn’t found him on a couple of plays,” Waldron said. “Even last week where there were a couple where he is the primary [target], the coverage plays out a little bit different and Cole is a beneficiary of a big explosive play on one of them.

“Obviously, we want to get Keenan involved more. It’s a goal of ours, but there will also be the structure of the defense and what they might take away that week. Each week the guys have done a good job knowing that we have multiple guys who have worked hard and deserve to get the rock right there.

“Rome  Odunze had a big game one time. Cole Kmet has a big game. D.J. Moore has one. D’Andre Swift has had a couple. So knowing that Keenan is a big part of our offense and wanting to get him involved — and again, it’s that fine line of pressing to get him involved but also knowing that he’s going to do a good job like he always does of doing things right, showing up every single day and working to get on the same page … and then leading to the results on the field.”

Jacksonville runs man coverage and Cover-1 at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Allen leads the Bears with 1.64 YPRR in man and 2.09 YPRR when opposing defenses go to C1 packages. This matchup, therefore, statistically favors Allen.

Let’s face it, Allen deserves a big game and an international stage is the perfect setting for the 12-year veteran. Jacksonville has allowed 24 pass plays of 20 or more yards this season. Meanwhile, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has improved in each of the five NFL games he has played. That streak won’t continue forever, but he has an opportunity to make it six straight on Sunday. Jacksonville’s opponents this year have posted a 111.7 passer rating, and they’re one of three teams — along with the Titans and Commanders — who have yet to record an interception. Williams has played two straight games without committing a turnover.

Allen, who has yet to have a big game with Williams, believes he is about to break out, but remains diplomatic, knowing there is only one ball on a team that lists five or more offensive weapons.

“It’ll happen,” he said. “We’re continuing to get better, growing every week. I feel like we did a great job last week of playing team football. As long as we’re winning, I’m good.”

This is how we do it, baby. Two weeks ago, Swift needed a big game and got one, as dig Kmet. Last week it was Moore. The smart money says Allen will have his signature game as a Bear against the Jaguars in London.

The Bears are favored by a point and a hook against the Jaguars. The over/under is 44.5, and Chicago is -120 on the money line (bet $120 straight up to win $100).

Field Conditions

A chance of rain with temperatures in the low 50s is expected at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. So pretty much the same as Chicago (and where I live, Milwaukee). The impact will be negligible, at least for Williams.

Bears Trends

  • The Bears have covered five straight games as favorites (3-0) against the spread.
  • Chicago is seeking to move to two games above .500 for the first time in the Matt Eberflus era.
  • This is the first time that the Bears have been favored in a game outside of Chicago since 2021.
  • The under has hit in the NFL London Series in each of the last five games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the last five games that Chicago has been the home team.
  • The Bears have won nine straight games when they were favored at kickoff.
  • Chicago leads the series 5-3 and has won three of four against the Jaguars.
  • Eberflus is 10-10 as a head coach in home games and 3-16 in contests played on the road.
  • The Bears are 0-1 lifetime at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
  • Swift has 285 combined rushing and receiving yards in his last two games.

Jaguars Trends

  • Jacksonville is 6-5 straight up in London and 1-1 as the visiting team.
  • Trevor Lawrence is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in the London Series.
  • Favorites have gone 22-11-1 straight up and 18-16 ATS in the London games.
  • Jacksonville has lost five of its last six games going back to last season.
  • They’ve lost seven straight when playing teams from the NFC North.
  • The Jaguars haven’t covered in any of their previous six games that they’ve been listed as the road team.
  • Jacksonville is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 tilts.
  • The Jaguars have allowed an opening drive touchdown in four straight games.

Why the Bears Will Win

If Williams takes another step forward the Bears will win this game pretty handily, but it is Chicago’s defense that will decide the game. The Bears are playing the “hot” quarterback for the third time in four weeks. They didn’t beat C.J. Stroud in Week 2 but he wasn’t a big factor in the outcome. Last week they shut down Andy Dalton and they should do the same to Lawrence this morning.

Williams has also thrown for 300+ yards in each of his last two games, and he should hit that benchmark again today, too. The Bears are establishing an identity and formula for success that leans on three components: Takeaways, field position, and time of possession. The first two are near certainties, so unless Jacksonville disrupts that, they’re going to lose.

This game is not as evenly matched as the spread indicates. That said, Chicago is not playing at Soldier Field though it is considered a home game. They’ve performed poorly under Eberflus when traveling away from Chicago, so the Bears are vulnerable in that respect. Keep in mind that the defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points all season. If Chicago scores 24 points or more, a win is nearly guaranteed.

Williams has been unflappable after a disastrous start to the season. Let’s see if he can continue that trend on the NFL’s international stage.

Why the Jaguars Will Win

Jacksonville is sitting on six straight October wins going back to last year so they’re trending favorably in that respect. Their offensive line is improving, but to win this game, the Jaguars must put pressure on Williams all game. In a nutshell, Jacksonville has to play its best defensive game of the season or they’ll fall to 1-5.

The ability to control the tempo and keep the Bears’ aggressive defense honest will rest largely on running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby, who powered an offense that averaged almost six yards per carry the last two weeks. Chicago’s defense has been great, but it is vulnerable against the run and often gives up too many chunk yardage running plays. Jacksonville will be able to run on Sunday, but they’ll need to punch it into the endzone to get a win.

Don’t forget, Jacksonville’s front office but a roster that was expected to get to the playoffs this season. Sure they’re sitting on just one win, but they could just as easily be 4-1 going into this game. Keeping it close won’t be enough to beat the Bears, however. If the Jaguars don’t run away with this one, they’ll need a little luck to beat Chicago. They’ve also got to find a way to stop Swift and Moore and keep Chicago’s defense from dictating the game.

Jacksonville’s experience as the league’s ambassador to England will go a long way, but it may not be enough this afternoon.

Did You Know?

How fast has Chicago’s rookie quarterback progressed entering Week 6?

In the last 10 quarters, Williams has completed 70.1% of his passes with five touchdowns, one interception, and a 109.8 passer rating. In the first 10 quarters of the season, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner connected on 57.0% of his passes with no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a 57.6 rating.

Game Day Quotes

  • “To be a great leader you have to be a follower first.” – Williams
  • “[Caleb] has been bossy lately, telling us that we need to be [zeroed in] on the details. But we really do for him to be the best player he needs to be.” – Moore
  • “Every week we are always going to be looking for that balanced attack, So starting with the run game when we’re efficient and then that efficiency can lead to explosives. We saw this past week with Swift on the left side or in the week before when we were able to run one in from 30-something out, so sticking with the run game, staying efficient is always going to allow our full offense to come to life.” – Waldron

Injury Reports

Players of the Game

Allen heads the list in case you missed the first few paragraphs. I’m going to add Williams, too, a first for me this season. The rookie was dominant in college against teams with weak defenses and Sunday should be no different. Montez Sweat is due for a big game, too, but I’m also going to save one game ball for Elijah Hicks. That’s a stretch, and he has big shoes to fill with Brisker out, but he’s going to be ready to man up. I’ll give props to Tory Taylor and Cairo Santos, and Coleman Shelton, too. The big center is getting more confident each game.

Prediction

Esteemed Bears Insider analyst Sean Holland previewed today’s game on Friday and projects a 24-21 win by the Bears. The injuries to Brisker and Stevenson will hurt Chicago, but Williams, Allen, Swift, Moore, Kmet, and Odunze provide too much firepower. The Bears broke the 30-point threshold last week and they’ll do it again today. I’ll take Chicago in a 30-10 win if they score first. If the Jaguars score first, I’ll still take the Bears, but by the score of 28-17.

If the Bears win, they’ll go into the bye week with a 4-2 record, the first time that Eberflus would be two games above .500 as Chicago’s head coach.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 13, 2024
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