D.J. Moore
(AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.)

Bears Game Day: You Can’t Put Your Arms Around a Memory

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 27, 2024

I’d argue with anybody that every game is a must-win affair in a 17-game win season, but today’s tilt between the Bears and Commanders seems more so. Chicago sits in last place of the powerful NFC North with a 4-2 record, but the Packers (5-2) and Lions (5-1) have very winnable games this afternoon. The Bears need a win to keep pace and they’ll need to reverse several negative trends.

  • Chicago is 3-16 in road games since Matt Eberflus took the reins from Matt Nagy in 2022.
  • At 14-26 (.350) overall, Eberflus is the third-worst head coach in team history. John Fox was 14-34 (.292) and Abe Gibron was 11-30 (.274)
  • They haven’t won on the road since beating the Vikings 12-10 on November 27, 2023.
  • The last time Chicago beat a team with a winning record was in Week 14 last season when they beat the Lions 28-13.
  • The Bears’ opponents have scored first in every game this season.
  • The Bears have lost eight of their last 10 games against Washington. They did beat the Commanders 40-20 in Washington last season, snapping their 14-game losing streak.
  • Eberflus has never won a road game played on a Sunday during his tenure with the Bears. He is attempting to win a fourth straight game for the first time as a head coach.
  • Chicago’s defense has been its most impressive season-long asset, and the Bears have held 12 straight opponents to 21 points or less. However, the unit is not quite as strong against the run, allowing 112.3 YPG. Last year, Chicago allowed a scant 86 YPG. What’s more troubling is that they’re allowing 4.6 yards per carry, the eighth-worst mark in the NFL. That’s because Chicago gives up too many explosive running plays. Washington has nine runs of 20+ yards this season.
  • The Commanders are third in attempts, second in total rushing yards, and third in yards per carry. They also lead the league in rushing touchdowns, thanks in part to Brian Robinson Jr., who has six of their 14 scores on the ground.
  • Robinson and Jayden Daniels have a combined 768 rushing yards on 151 carries (5.08 YPC) with 10 touchdowns. Washington will most likely run the ball until the Bears prove they can stop them. That will also help to open up the team’s passing attack, and Chicago will be missing key defensive starters Jaquan Brisker and Kyler Gordon.

The Bears are going to have to play their best game of the season to beat the Commanders and leave those disturbing trends behind. Chicago is favored by 1.5 points and the over/under is 44. Many analysts believe this will be a low-scoring contest but I do not. The Bears are averaging 31.67 points during their three-game winning streak. Additionally, injuries to Chicago’s secondary and their struggles against the run favor a high-scoring affair.

The Bears are also -130 on the money line (bet $130 straight up to win $100) but that’s a riskier bet.

Field Conditions

It’s going to be 60 degrees and sunny with light and variable winds at kickoff. Weather will therefore not be a factor in deciding the game’s outcome.

Bears Trends

  • Caleb Williams has been sacked 20 times this season and his sack rate is 9.13%.
  • The rookie quarterback is responsible for 18% of his pressures because of ad-libbing or holding the ball too long. He ranks 18th among 45 quarterbacks who have played a snap this season.
  • Williams has a 122.8 passer rating during Chicago’s three-game win streak, third-best in the NFL.
  • The Bears are third in EPA per dropback at 0.33 in weeks 4-7.
  • During Weeks 3 through 6, only five players had more rushing yards than D’Andre Swift: Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard, Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, and Saquon Barkley.
  • Kevin Byard has 39 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and one interception.
  • Gervon Dexter leads the Bears with four sacks and 3.0 TFL.
  • The Bears have the best defense in the league in terms of EPA per dropback thanks to a surprisingly strong pass rush.
  • Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Bears have averaged eight plays and 58 yards in their final drive of the first half inside two minutes, scoring points in all but one game. That lone miss was the Hail Mary pass to D.J. Moore that fell a yard shy of the end zone in a Week 3 loss to the Colts.
  • The Bears have been favored by one point or more three times this season and covered the spread in each of them.
  • Chicago has combined with its opponent to eclipse the over/under in three of six games.

Commanders Trends

  • Daniels is averaging 8.4 passing yards per attempt (fifth in the NFL) and 201.4 yards per game this year, completing 75.6% of his passes on the way to 1,410 total yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions through seven games.
  • Terry McLaurin is Daniels’ top target. He’s caught 35 of 49 targets for 454 yards and four touchdowns.
  • The Commanders are averaging 31.4 PPG this season.
  • Washington ranks fourth in points allowed per game (16) and seventh in yards per game (293) over its last four games.
  • Commanders coach Dan Quinn is seeking to start 6-2 in his first season with a second franchise after doing the same with Atlanta in 2015. Only two other coaches have done that in the past 100 years (Jim Caldwell and Jon Gruden).
  • The Commanders are 6-1 ATS this season, tied with the Colts for the best ATS record in the NFL.
  • Washington’s games have eclipsed the over five times this season.
  • The Commanders are 2-2 as underdogs this season.

Why the Bears Will Win

The Bears have to focus on containing Washington’s ground game. Daniels is dynamic whether he throws or runs the ball, but opposing teams have yet to force the Commanders into playing a one-dimensional offense. The trend that Chicago most needs to reverse is falling behind while losing the first quarter. To do that, the Bears need to focus on stifling Washington’s offense by crippling its ability to run the ball.

Chicago’s defensive unit ranks in the top five in the NFL in multiple categories: first in opponent passer rating (72.8), third in takeaways per game (2.2), fourth in points per game (16.8), and fifth in total yards per game (292.0) and red-zone touchdown percentage (43.8). That’s dominating considering the Bears have yet to peak defensively. If they can do all of that while stopping the run it will be a long day for the Commanders.

Chicago also has to continue to improve on offense. The Bears scored five TDs in each of their last two games in wins over the Panthers and Jaguars, the first time they’ve done that in back-to-back contests since 1956. Simply put, if the Bears notch five offensive touchdowns on Sunday they’ll win the game. Success at quarterback is rarely linear, but Williams and Daniels could both have big games no matter which team wins. That said, if Williams continues to get better each game, Chicago will contend to win a strong and tightly-packed NFC North.

This game reminds me a lot of last year’s tilt against the Lions. The Commanders next play the Giants, Eagles, Steelers, and Cowboys, and could be looking past this game, especially concerning Daniels’ injury.  That could be a huge break for the Bears, especially if Daniels sits out.

Why the Commanders Will Win

The keys to a Washington win are two-fold: Dominate the line and beat the Bears into submission with its ground game while jumping out to an early lead. The Commanders are averaging 5.3 first-quarter points, tied for 10th in the NFL. Conversely, the Bears are averaging just 1.7 points. Scoring first isn’t enough, however. Washington has to dominate the first half because Chicago has outscored its opponents 54-33 in the second quarter. The Colts and Texans beat the Bears by outscoring Chicago 23-10 in the first and second stanzas.

The Commanders also have to break the Bears’ 12-game streak of holding opponents to 21 points or fewer. Chicago lost its two games by a total of 11 points, so at worst, they’ll keep the game close if Williams and the offense aren’t clicking. Expect a healthy dose of runs by Daniels, Robinson, Austin Ekeler, and Jeremy McNichols to chip away at the Bears’ defense and keep Chicago’s high-scoring offense off the field.

Did You Know?

From Collen Kane of the Chicago Tribune:

“The NFL Network reported Sunday morning that there’s a “realistic chance” that Daniels could play against the Bears after recovering from a rib injury this week. ESPN reported that “all signs point to” the Commanders playing Daniels, the rookie quarterback drafted No. 2 behind Williams. Washington is expected to see how Daniels feels in pregame warmups before making a final decision.

“Commanders coach Dan Quinn said they pushed him hard in practice Friday to see how he would respond, and the team listed him as questionable for the game. If Daniels doesn’t play, the Commanders would turn to veteran Marcus Mariota at quarterback.”

Chances are, this is just gamesmanship from the Commanders and Daniels is going to sit. Sources say Chicago views the offense as being similar no matter the quarterback, though Daniels offers a more dynamic option with both his feet and legs.

Mariota beat the Bears 27-24 in 2022 when he played for the Falcons. Justin Fields was intercepted at the end of that game while attempting to lead the Bears to a come-from-behind win. Mariota was 13-of-20 for 131 yards and a score in that game. He also carried the ball an additional 13 times for 25 yards and another score.

Game Day Quotes

  • “The challenge that we have in front of us this week goes to the extreme. [Washington] can attack you from multiple directions. They’re scoring a lot of points. They are able to run the football. Daniels has done a nice job of establishing who he is in the framework of [their] offense. They’re protecting the football. They’re protecting the quarterback. This will be a great opportunity for us to not only evaluate our values but to measure ourselves against a pretty good offense [with] a really experienced [offensive coordinator].” – Eric Washington (Bears DC)
  • “My job is to go win games on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. That’s it.” – Williams
  • “People can be as excited as they want to be. What I can say about Caleb? He’s taken steps every game. That’s been evident. … He’s just super dynamic. He’s a pass-first guy but he [can] run as well, and he [does] a pretty good job of taking care of himself when he does become a runner.” – Cole Kmet

Injury Reports

Players of the Game 

Each of the Bears’ offensive weapons has had a breakout game this season, so I’m choosing Swift and Rome Odunze. The rookie wide receiver seems poised for a big game and analytics endorse that outcome. Chicago had two weeks to prepare and Williams is playing in his hometown on national television. The two have an opportunity to establish themselves as the league’s next great QB/WR tandem.

On defense, Chicago truly needs big games from defensive backs Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson. Montez Sweat is facing the Commanders for the first time since he was traded to the Bears and he’ll be amped up. The key to beating Washington is to debilitate its ground game, as mentioned previously. Will Dexter, T.J. Edwards, and Tremaine Edmunds be up to the task? I believe they will. Dexter is the guy, however. The last thing the Commanders want is for Sweat to dominate. That’s going to open up a big opportunity for Chicago’s interior to dominate on defense.

Finally, Tory Taylor will play a big role in Sunday’s game. Field position is everything when two efficient, high-scoring offenses go to battle. Expect Taylor to show once again that he was the best value pick in this year’s NFL draft.

Prediction

Sean Holland analyzed today’s game for Bears Insider and predicted a 28-21 win. I like the Bears today but they’ll win by at least two scores whether Daniels plays or not. Give me Chicago in a 33-19 win.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 27, 2024
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