Caleb Williams
(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

Bears Will Make Playoffs But Not Just Because of Caleb Williams

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 31, 2024

I’m convinced of two things heading into the 2024-25 NFL season:

  1. Caleb Williams will be named Offensive Rookie of the Year; and
  2. The Bears will win 11 or more games and make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

Bear with me momentarily because I will be rightly accused of being a homer and drinking the Caleb Kool-Aid. Williams will not be solely responsible for leading Chicago to the NFL’s annual Super Bowl tournament. The defense is as good as it has been since the Lovie Smith years and that’s the bedrock of what will be the league’s biggest surprise.

But let me talk about something other than Williams for one second, and more specifically, the Bears’ underrated offensive line. The unit was low-key good last season and statistics validate that. According to ESPN, the Bears were fifth in pass-block win rate and second in run-block win rate. As painful as it is to admit, Justin Fields took the fifth-most sacks in 2023 because he didn’t get rid of the ball quickly enough. It’s time to move on, folks. You should wish Fields nothing but the best in Pittsburgh, but it’s time to get behind Williams.

GM Ryan Poles has full faith in his big dogs and said so earlier this week:

“I think [the offensive line] can be special,” he said. “This is probably the best depth I’ve ever had. I let one of the guys go on cut-downs, and I was like, ‘Man, you did an excellent job. I wish we could keep you here.’ He said, ‘This is the deepest room I’ve ever been a part of.’

“So we have more versatility, more depth. Shoot, we have 10 guys, so I feel comfortable. Obviously, you want your starting five to be healthy and ready to go, but I feel more confident in the depth of our offensive line than I ever have before.”

Yes, Williams also holds the ball longer than most fans would like. But, he can improvise better than Fields and buys time for his receivers to get open. He’s also not afraid to make his secondary reads or throw the ball in anticipation of his pass catcher getting open. The two are near-equals in terms of athleticism, but Williams has a fearlessness and confidence that Fields lacked.

Let me make one more comment before moving on. The Bears lost six games by eight points or fewer in 2023 and another six the year prior. The organization wouldn’t have needed Williams had Fields been more proficient and the team might have made the playoffs last year. The O-Line will tilt the season in Williams’ favor, who will prevent Chicago from losing winnable games.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s look at Chicago’s strengths.

  1. Poles replaced offensive coordinator Luke Getsy with Shane Waldron. The latter got the most out of Seahawks QB Geno Smith and was Sean McVay’s pass game coordinator for the Rams from 2018-20.
  2. Poles traded for six-time Pro Bowl WR Keenan Allen, drafted Rome Odunze, and signed 2023 Pro Bowl RB D’Andre Swift as a free agent this offseason. He also has stars D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. Williams has the best supporting cast for a No. 1 pick over the past 25 years and the second-best for a top-12 pick behind only Daunte Culpepper … who threw to Randy Moss and Cris Carter.
  3. Kmet will have an All-Pro campaign this year. Book it.
  4. Odunze will challenge Williams for Offensive ROY honors.
  5. That said, Chicago’s receiver room needs to prove it has the necessary depth to compete over a 17-game schedule. Tyler Scott is the team’s WR4 but was inconsistent as a rookie. DeAndre Carter and Velus Jones are fifth and sixth on the depth chart.
  6. The Bears have the best group of linebackers in the NFC North, if not the entire conference. T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, and Jack Sanborn are productive veterans and the group is deep with backups Noah Sewell and Amen Ogbongbemiga. When PFF released its annual linebacker rankings in May, Edwards was ranked No. 9 and Edmunds was No. 11. The Bears were the only team with multiple players in the top 11. Sanborn also held his own after a memorable rookie campaign in 2022. The former undrafted free agent out of Wisconsin has become a fan favorite for his instinctual and hard-hitting play. Chicago also traded for pass rush specialist Darrell Taylor, who’ll play Edge opposite Montez Sweat.
  7. Chicago’s secondary brings continuity, experience, and a voracious appetite for the ball to the team. Though PFF ranks the group in the bottom half of the league, Jaylon Johnson, Jaquan Brisker, Tyrique Stevenson, Eddie Jackson, and Kyler Gordon were playing elite football at the end of 2023 and helped Chicago tie for the league lead in interceptions (22). Jackson is gone, but Poles signed free-agent safety Kevin Byard III to replace him.
  8. Cairo Santos and Tory Taylor lead the Bears’ special team unit, which took a hit with the recent injury to long snapper Patrick Scales. Carter will return kicks and Jones will handle kickoff return duties.
  9. Sweat and Taylor anchor an improving defensive line, but Chicago lacks experience on the interior. DeMarcus Walker is a capable veteran, but this unit will fail or succeed based on the performance of sophomore DT Gervon Dexter Sr. As a rookie, Dexter played 40% of the team’s defensive snaps last year, while Justin Jones, who started ahead of him, is gone. Though Dexter has the potential to elevate the Bears’ defense, there are concerns about his ability to handle an expanded role, particularly against stronger running games. If he struggles, it could expose weaknesses and undermine the defensive unit. Zacch Pickens is injured, and Chicago added Chris Williams last week. Keep an eye on rookie Austin Booker, who could be special.
  10. The Bears get a big break this year based on strength of schedule, though last year proved that’s not the boost it should be. Chicago has a very soft schedule — third easiest based on 2023 opponent win totals — and faces several easy pass defenses. Of their 17 games, only four come against teams 15th or better in pass defense DVOA last year. That will help Williams successfully navigate his first NFL season and could give the Bears three 1,000-yard receivers for the first time in franchise history.

The Bears, in fact, have a legitimate shot at winning their first four games. They could win more September games than the White Sox, as sad as that sounds for Chicago’s South Side Baseballers. The Bears play the Titans, Texans, Colts, and Rams to start their 2024 campaign. Each of those games is winnable, though Houston presents a formidable challenge. That said, Williams has a lot more weapons than C.J. Stroud, so the game will be fun to watch nonetheless. Houston’s second-year QB has to avoid regression, too, and if Chicago wins the turnover battle it will come away with a win.

A 4-0 start means the Bears need to go 7-6 to finish with 11 wins, and Chicago plays all of its NFC North rivals in six of its final seven games. A potential playoff berth will balance on the outcomes of those games. If the Bears spilt them they’ll be a playoff team in a division capable of sending three teams to the postseason tournament. If Chicago wins four or more, they will compete for a division title.

Here are my 2024 postseason predictions:

  • AFC East: Dolphins
  • AFC North: Bengals
  • AFC South: Texans
  • AFC West: Chiefs
  • AFC Wild Cards: Bills, Ravens, and Jets
  • NFC East: Eagles
  • NFC North: Packers
  • NFC South: Falcons
  • NFC West: 49ers
  • NFC Wild Cards: Cowboys, Bears, and Lions

Keep an eye on 2025: The Bears will take the NFC North next year and are set up for an extended run provided their top players stay healthy.

 

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterAugust 31, 2024
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