Keenan Allen and Marcedes Lewis
(AP Photo/Steve Luciano)

For Bears Fans, Last Place Has Never Been So Much Fun

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 17, 2024

Note: Due to an issue with backing up our website we lost all of our articles posted since October 9 through this one. I apologize if you have clicked on a link only to find no content. That’s no way to retain readers, but we’ll put our best foot forward to ensure that never happens again.

The Bears are 4-2, sitting on the No. 8 seed in the NFC playoff race, and they are in last place. But last place has never been so much fun. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is on a heater at the moment, and he’s helped pair a very capable offense with a defense that is one of the strongest in the league. Fans of the NFL’s charter franchise haven’t had this much fun since the days of Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Brian Urlacher.

It’s still difficult to fathom, but the NFC North is the NFL’s strongest division, and right now it isn’t particularly close. The Vikings (+63), Lions (+60), Bears (+47), and Packers (+41) are the league’s top four teams in point differential. No division has ever sent four teams to the playoffs, and though the season is just six weeks old, the North seems capable of dominating the conference.

Still, the odds don’t favor a divisional sweep entering this year’s postseason.

Austin Mock simulated the remainder of the season more than 100,000 times ($) for The Athletic and all four NFC North teams made the playoffs just under 7% of the time. The Bears are the laggard with just a 39% chance of reaching the postseason in his model. That said, teams that start 4-2 have a 62% chance of at least earning a Wild Card entry. The Bears play the Commanders, Cardinals, and Patriots after this week’s bye. Winning all three would increase Chicago’s postseason odds to 90%. Winning two of three lowers that mark to 74%.

The Lions were the favorites coming into this season based on their run to the NFC Championship in 2023. The Vikings are currently led by journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold. The Packers lost Jordan Love for two games due to injury. The Bears were deemed by most analysts to be a year or two away despite adding D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze to an offense that already had D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. NFC North teams have a combined 17-5 record — the best by any division through six weeks of a season since 1970.

Still, the four teams have played just one intradivisional game all season. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in a Week 4 tilt after jumping to a 28-0 lead late in the first half. Minnesota (5-0) hosts the Lions (4-1) in a clash for first place on Sunday. Chicago doesn’t play any of its divisional brethren until they host Green Bay (4-2) on November 17. That starts a run where the Bears play all of their NFC North opponents twice, plus the reigning NFC champion 49ers in seven of their final eight games. The Bears would probably need to win at least three of those games to get into the playoffs if they can improve their start to 7-2.

Most Bears fans will tell you that Chicago can’t win with Matt Eberflus running the team, but the head coach is quickly changing that narrative. The Bears are 9-5 (.643) in their previous 14 games and have three consecutive wins. They have a nine-game home winning streak, including Sunday’s win against the Jaguars in London. Chicago’s defense has allowed 21 or fewer points in 12 straight contests. They also lead the NFL in takeaways since Week 1 of the 2023 season.

It is Chicago’s offense that has made this season so much fun, however. It’s so good that analysts rarely talk about the team’s elite defense.

The Bears have scored 35+ points in back-to-back games. They have 10 offensive touchdowns in those two wins, the first time that’s happened since 1956. Williams’ weekly growth has resulted in three straight weeks of a 100-plus passer rating. No Bears rookie quarterback going back to at least 1970 has been that successful. Kmet sees the growth and the potential of Chicago’s QB1.

“People can be as excited as they want to be,” Kmet said. “What I can say about Caleb? He’s taken steps every game. That’s been evident. … He’s just super dynamic. He’s a pass-first guy but he has the ability to run as well, and he did a pretty good job of taking care of himself when he does become a runner.”

The key to the offense, however, has been Swift’s resurgence. After totaling just 218 rushing yards in the first three games, the Bears have had 128 or more in each of the last three. Swift has played better, rushing for 257 yards and three touchdowns while catching 13 passes for 147 yards in the last three games. The offensive line is starting to gel, too, starting with improved play by Coleman Shelton. Matt Pryor gives Chicago a big-bodies presence on the line. Darnell Wright has improved after a slow start, and Braxton Jones seems to have put a dismal sophomore season behind him. Ryan Bates is eligible to return for the Commanders game.

“It’s a long season,” Eberflus said this week. “But I do like where [the offensive line] has been the last few weeks. It’s been firm, it’s been good and the protection has been nice. The continuity has been good too. We’ll see where it is when guys come back and where guys are going forward.”

The line isn’t elite by any means, but it is deep and efficient. There are no weak links like Sam Mustipher or Larry Borom, for instance. The NFL’s trade deadline is a few weeks away, so GM Ryan Poles has an opportunity to improve that unit. He’s swung key trades every year, though they haven’t always worked out. The Bears acquired Montez Sweat at last year’s deadline, and an acquisition of similar quality for the offensive line could vault Chicago into elite territory. That’s the team’s only hole right now, but you have an opportunity to beat anybody if your lagging component is at least adequate.

Think about that for a minute. The Bears are clicking on all cylinders, including special teams. Cairo Santos has been dependable and rookie punter Tory Taylor has been a monster. The urge to pencil in an automatic loss against tougher opponents is no longer a given.

Still, there is no reason to look ahead right now. Washington is a formidable opponent and the Bears are battling through injuries to key members of their secondary. Jaquan Brisker did not travel with the team to London, Tyrique Stevenson was scratched, and Kyler Gordon was hurt in the win over Jacksonville. Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders and he’s one of the league’s best quarterbacks.

Washington’s defense, though prone to giving up big plays, is better than any of Chicago’s previous three opponents. The unit also boasts a 9.83% sack rate, fifth-best in the NFL. Williams and Daniels represent a marquee matchup of sorts and will be marketed as such. The NFL rarely has two rookie quarterbacks playing this well to start their careers. The league flexed the game to a later start to broaden its audience. That’s what happens when a team starts winning the games it is supposed to.

The Bears are certainly worthy of a primetime audience. Last place has never been this much fun.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 17, 2024
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