Caleb Williams
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

Is Caleb Williams a Top-Six NFL Quarterback?

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 3, 2024

I took some shrapnel the other day because I predicted the Bears would win 11 games this season and earn a playoff berth as one of three NFC North representatives in this year’s Super Bowl tournament. I also mentioned that those 11 wins are independent of the performance of rookie QB Caleb Williams.

Perhaps I am underselling Williams.

Earlier today, Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, Kevin Wildes, and Eric Mangini of First Things First revealed their inaugural 2024 edition of Mahomes Mountain, which ranks all 32 NFL starting QBs. Wright placed Williams in the 4-6 range, just below Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud are in the same tier as Williams. That puts Chicago’s top rookie above division rivals Jordan Love and Jared Goff, and ahead of No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels.

Wright is so high on Williams that he’s betting that the Bears will be playing the Chiefs in this year’s Super Bowl. The man is obviously a fan of Chicago’s QB1, but is Williams that good? Nothing counts until the season starts, but there’s no denying the hype that surrounds the rookie’s upcoming debut against the Titans this Sunday.

That said, I’d stop well short of putting Williams above Love, Goff, and even Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Hurts. Williams has the potential to be elite, but there is no body of professional work to make that case. He may not even be the best rookie in his draft class. Daniels will have something to say about that and that’s going to be a battle worth watching all season.

Williams, however, has more weapons. Chicago also has a better defense and better special teams than the Commanders. Though QB wins mean even less than wins credited to MLB pitchers, a team’s win/loss record is almost always indicative of the play of its quarterback. Some QBs can carry a team to victory while others are better game managers. We’ll see a little bit of both in Chicago this season. The team has immense big-play capability, but head coach Matt Eberflus is always going to be more concerned with winning the takeaway and time-of-possession battles. In other words, don’t put 4,000+ yards worth of expectations on Williams’ right arm.

Wright is not the only believer in Williams’ big play potential. Katie Baker of The Ringer wrote that the rookie quarterback is one of the more compelling dudes on Chicago’s roster. As a result, it’s tough to separate excitement from fact according to Laurence Holmes of 670 The Score.

“Here’s what I want to know,” Holmes said recently, pausing for effect. “How can we balance excitement about Caleb Williams with coverage of Caleb Williams—honest coverage?

“Every one of our bosses … they have figured out, if we talk about it from an algorithm standpoint: Caleb Williams equals great. It equals eyes. It equals clicks. Like, all of those things.”

But does Williams equal wins? The debate has raged on since the 2023-24 season ended. It ramped up to unyielding levels once Justin Fields was traded to the Steelers. Like it or not, and for better or worse, Williams is the guy in the Windy City for the next 4-5 years, and hopefully longer. Nobody wants to endure Chicago’s next search for a franchise quarterback until Williams is ready to retire.

Thankfully, Williams has 52 players, a coaching staff, and a front office committed to helping him reach the rarified air generally reserved for Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. What’s working against the rookie is the team’s archives. Chicago hasn’t had many offensive weapons in its storied history. For every Red Grange, Sid Luckman, and Walter Payton there are about a dozen great linebackers and defensive linemen enshrined in Canton. When the Bears win – and it’s not nearly enough – it’s because the team was carried by a great running game and an even better defensive unit. If anyone can break that mold it’s Williams. The Bears finally have a quarterback with a surrounding infrastructure in place to help him succeed starting in Week 1.

D.J. Moore is coming off of his best season by receiving yardage (1,364) and touchdowns (eight). Ditto for incoming wideout Keenan Allen. He set career highs in catches (108) and yards per game (95.6) for the Chargers in 2023. The Bears drafted Rome Odunze at No. 9 overall specifically to pair with Williams. He’s a battle-tested pass-catcher who led the NCAA in receiving yards last year and was a finalist for the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s best receiver. Chicago also has two very good tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett.

Believe it or not, Eberflus believes his running backs will lead his offense. The Bears have D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson, plus Velus Jones spent some time as a halfback this summer. Chicago has no shortage of offensive weapons, and they’re so intimidating Tyson Bagent can win with this group.

In fact, a large contingent of Bears Nation believes Bagent should be the alpha in Chicago’s quarterback room. For all of his talent and oozing potential, Williams remains a polarizing figure among the team’s fans. The can’t miss talent took a social media beating because of some alleged red flags, such as refusing to hire an agent, skipping medical testing at the NFL Combine, and a few perceived character issues. One Twitter account proclaims 3-4 times daily that Williams will be a bust. I don’t agree and it’s not worth reading, so click at your own risk.

As I wrote the other day, yes, Williams holds the ball longer than most fans would like. But, he can improvise better than Fields and buys time for his receivers to get open. He’s also not afraid to make his secondary reads or throw the ball in anticipation of his pass-catcher getting open. Jay Cutler was the last starting quarterback in Chicago to display those traits. Williams, however, won’t throw as many picks as Cutler did. Then again, everything is potential and nothing more until the former Heisman Trophy winner takes his first NFL snap.

“There’s been a long trail of tears when it comes to quarterbacks and Chicago,” former Bears quarterback Cade McNown told the L.A. Times earlier this year. Jim McMahon calls Chicago “the place where NFL quarterbacks go to die,” and he won a Super Bowl with the Bears. Fields still has his fans, as does Mitchell Trubisky, but Williams feels different. That said, the Bears have just one playoff win in the last 17 seasons, and the Packers have owned them for the better part of three decades. So, Williams has to be better, doesn’t he?

A winning season would be a good start. Beating Green Bay and getting to the playoffs would be nice, too. The Bears haven’t beaten the Packers since Green Bay hired head coach Matt Lafleur in 2019. Winning one playoff game would put William in the same company as Cutler, Rex Grossman, Steve Walsh, and Mike Tomczak. Those are the only Bears quarterbacks to win in the postseason since McMahon led the Bears to an NFL championship in 1986. If Williams can do just that, he’ll win over most Bears fans whether he’s a top-five quarterback or not.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 3, 2024
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