Quarterback decision will define offseason for Minnesota Vikings

With the 2024-25 football season officially in the books, we can go full throttle into the off season. Bears Insider is going to take a look at the NFC North and we’ll continue with the Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota was arguably the most surprising team of 2024 led by Sam Darnold doing his best top-10 quarterback impersonation until consecutive losses to the Detroit Lions, and in the playoffs, to the Los Angeles Rams ended their season in unceremonious fashion.

There’s big questions for this team in 2025 and holes to fill, but a lot of cap space to do so.

2024 record: 14-3

Estimated cap space (via Spotrac): $61,138,188

2025 draft picks: Round 1 (24); Round 3 (97 -Projected Comp for Kurt Cousins); Round 5 (140 – CLE) and Round 5 (161)

Biggest priority: Minnesota needs to make a decision at quarterback. JJ McCarthy is the future, but missed last season with a knee injury. That factor certainly made Kevin O’Connell’s start-versus-sit decision easier, but then Darnold launched them to an incredible season before flaming out in the end. It’s possible they bring Darnold back if its a short-term deal or allows the Vikings to get out from under it easily. Starting McCarthy is definitely an option. The other route is a third quarterback as a bridge, but at some point Minnesota needs to see what it has in the 2024 No. 9 pick to chart its path forward.

Notable pending free agents: QB Sam Darnold (27); S Cam Bynum (26); S Harrison Smith (36); CB Byron Murphy Jr. (27); CB Stephon Gilmore (34); CB Shaquill Griffin (29); RB Aaron Jones (30); G Dalton Risner (29); OT Cam Robinson (29): Wow, this is a list of key players from the playoff run season! We touched on Darnold already, so let’s take a pass there. The standouts here are Bynum, Smith and Murphy because the entire safety room and three starting corners are expiring. I’d expect Bynum and Murphy are priorities because of their age and the fact Brian Flores is back for another run. Smith should be back if he doesn’t retire — the guy hasn’t lost a step. Don’t rule out Robinson either, but if Christian Darrisaw comes back OK, Robinson can command more in the open market.

One free agent to watch: CB Asante Samuel Jr. With Griffin and Gilmore in their 30s and Smith (if he returns) likely coming in at a lower cap hit, the Vikings could stick with a young core at corner by adding Samuel (25) to the mix with Murphy and Bynum. A shoulder injury limited him to four games last year. He has exactly two picks in each of the last three years prior to 2024 and would seem to fit the mold of an aggressive playmaker for Flores.

Draft outlook: Cornerback room aside, the defensive tackle position is a position of need that also falls in line with a stronger class and Minnesota’s draft position. The Vikings won’t be in position to grab Michigan’s Mason Graham, leaving fellow Wolverine Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolen of Ole Miss and Oregon’s Derrick Harmon in the mix. The Vikings could address running back in the third round of a loaded class. With only a select few picks this year, it’s hard to see the Vikings moving up the draft board without future picks involved.

Biggest question mark: Is this a win-now team? It feels silly to ask that after a 14-3 season, but very few people saw Minnesota’s 2024 season coming. Darnold was a revelation until the Lions and Rams stepped on the gas defensively and ended the run early. Flores hit all the right buttons on defense with an unheralded unit. O’Connell was the coach of the year. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson are a top-notch pass catching trio. The offensive line is above average when Darrisaw is in it. Still, this feels like the fluke team. The quarterback decisions will go a long way in answering this question as O’Connell looks to be a plug-and-play coach like Kyle Shanahan, who is only limited by the quarterback’s ceiling, but Flores repeating his masterful performance seems just as important.

One prediction: Sign RB Nick Chubb (29) to a one-year deal with heavy incentives. The cap hit here exceeds the $7 million given to Jones this season as Chubb’s peak has been higher, and the incentives can bring this up to top-level RB value. He’ll turn 30 in December and a major knee injury limited him to 10 games the last two seasons. If we use Jones as the blueprint for how Minnesota approaches the position, it can make a moderate swing on a bounce-back season (also like Jones in 2024) and have a primary back in tow. The Vikings would need to secure a passing-game running back to mix in with him.

Bold prediction: Vikings trade out of the first round with Las Vegas for the Raiders’ second round pick (37th overall) and change. Hear me out: What happens if this turns into the 2022 NFL Draft, where quarterback prospects teams were “meh” on forced Kenny Pickett all the way down to No. 20 as the first guy taken at the position? It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders take a hard fall — or a team falls in love with Jaxon Dart, Jalen Milroe, et. al. Minnesota moves back moderately to fill in the margins, adding picks from Vegas, which owns two thirds, a fourth and fifth, and three sixth-rounders.

For-the-content prediction: This prediction is more something I want to see for sheer entertainment value, but isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Just more Madden-based reality. It could happen, and if it did, we’d be writing a ton about it.

It’s destiny for this to happen again. Aaron Rodgers signs a one-year deal with Minnesota after the Jets move on. I’m not advocating for this, but FOR THE CONTENT is there a better scenario to play out? I won’t even justify this beyond pointing back to the quarterback situation and the most hilarious outcome possible. Look out in 10 years, Jordan Love.